Makhachev vs Green UFC Fight Night betting picks – 26/2/2022

Islam Makhachev will look to take another step towards a seemingly inevitable shot at the UFC Lightweight Championship with a win this Saturday over Bobby Green in the main event of UFC Fight Night 202. This fight was originally scheduled to pit Makhachev against Beneil Dariush, but Green stepped in on short notice when Dariush pulled out of this fight due to injury last week.

Islam Makhachev stats, record & form

Islam Makhachev (21-1-0) has won each of his last nine fights since suffering the only loss of his professional career all the way back in 2015. Makhachev most recently defeated Dan Hooker with a kimura lock to secure a first-round submission win. The 30-year-old was already one of the best young fighters in the UFC back in 2019, but his incredible year in 2021 with a 3-0 record via three submission victories has established him as a top-five lightweight and a legitimate title contender.

Bobby Green stats, record & form

Bobby Green (29-12-1) has picked up back-to-back wins over Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast to improve to 5-2 over his last seven fights since going 1-5-1 over his previous seven bouts. Green has 10 knockout wins and eight submission wins on his professional resume, though seven of his last eight wins have come via decision, so he hasn’t really shown much of a knack for finishing fights in the UFC. He did, however, earn a Performance of the Night bonus last year for his first-round knockout win over Iaquinta.

Makhachev vs Green fight analysis & best bets

It’s really a shame that Dariush was unable to go in this fight. The 32-year-old has won seven straight fights, and the winner of a Makhachev vs Dariush showdown would have been the clear choice to face the winner of the Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje fight at UFC 274. Instead, we get what pretty much amounts to a tune-up fight for Makhachev.

With all due respect for Green and his recent stretch of solid fights, Makhachev is clearly on another level. And the issue for bettors looking for value on the underdog hoping that the last-minute change in opponents throws Makhachev off is that Makhachev’s elite and smothering grappling is effective against everyone; it isn’t like he needs to change his gameplan. He will take this fight to the ground at his will and will eventually secure a fight-ending submission hold.