Mayweather vs. Pacquiao betting preview, exotics & value bets

TO steal the phrase of ring announcer Michael Buffer, let’s get ready to rumble!

After years of waiting, discussions, settlements and verbal exchanges, Floyd “Money” Mayweather and Manny “Pacman” Pacquiao will do battle in the MGM Grand ring for the welterweight championships, and it’s got everyone buzzing.

Even those who couldn’t distinguish the difference between a jab and an uppercut are intrigued by this fight, which is taking over television screens around the globe.

The sheer popularity in viewership is record-breaking, but we’re interesting in the gambling side as well, after all, it’s happening in the gambling capital of the world, Las Vegas.

We take two fighters from vastly different backgrounds and let them battle it out for 12 rounds. In one corner you have Floyd Mayweather (47-0), a show-boating native of Las Vegas who carries around $1 million in a briefcase just because he can.

Then there’s Manny Pacquiao (57-5-2), the soft spoken 36-year-old from The Philippines who lets his fists do the talking, or his trainer Freddie Roach for that matter.

This fight has transformed what has been a struggling industry, viewership wise, and we’re expecting nothing but the best come Sunday.

Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Tale of the Tape

Floyd Mayweather – $1.50 at Crownbet.com.au

Wins: 47
Losses: 0
KO’s: 26
Draws: 0
Height: 5’8″
Reach: 72″
Stance: Orthodox
Age: 36

Notable career wins:
Unanimous decision vs. Miguel Cotto – 2012
Unanimous decision vs. Shane Mosley – 2010
TKO vs. Ricky Hatton – 2007
Split decision vs. Oscar De La Hoya – 2007

Manny Pacquiao – $2.80 at Sportsbet.com.au

Wins: 57
Losses: 5
KO’s: 38
Draws: 2
Height: 5’6″
Reach: 67″
Stance: Southpaw
Age: 36

Notable career wins:
Unanimous decision vs. Tim Bradley – 2014
Unanimous decision vs. Shane Mosley – 2011
TKO vs. Miguel Cotto – 2009
Knockout vs. Ricky Hatton – 2009

Both Mayweather and Pacquiao have a similar record of fighters they have faced and beaten. Both fighters dispatched of Miguel Cotto, Ricky Hatton and Oscar De La Hoya, so this fight could go either way based on that.

Pacquiao has suffered five losses which is a concern, especially when he was knocked out against Juan Manuel Marquez in 2011, but he bounced back with three consecutive unanimous decision victories.

The reach advantage is clearly with Mayweather’s at 72 inches which is why he’s so good at defending and picking his spots to attack.

The statistics read well for Mayweather fans but Pacquiao has that hidden power which can turn a fight on its head.

Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight markets and odds

1. Floyd Mayweather – $1.50 (best price at WilliamHill.com.au)
2. Manny Pacquiao – $2.80 (best price at Sportsbet.com.au)

The market for this bout has been very interesting in the months leading up to Sunday.

Floyd Mayweather opened as short as $1.38 at some bookmakers but has steadily been on the drift since the market opened.

Despite a range of big bets coming for the American, his odds have drifted out to $1.50 as most of the “public” money has come for Pacquiao.

Early bettors were able to grab $3.30 for Manny, which has now dropped to $2.80, and betting for Pacquiao has surpassed betting for Mayweather by 10:1.

The large majority of those bets have been smaller, compared to the large bets placed on Mayweather, but it’s clear to see who the fan favourite is.

Rapper 50 Cent put US$1.6 million to win $500,000 on Mayweather but those bets don’t affect the public market. There haven’t been any sizable bets on Pacquiao but he is still attracting the large majority of bets placed.

Method of Victory:

Mayweather points or decision – $1.85 at CrownBet.com.au
Mayweather KO/TKO – $7

Pacquiao points or decision – $5
Pacquiao KO/TKO – $5.60

Draw – $14

Both fighters scored heavily by knockout in the early stages of their careers, but neither fighter looks likely to score via knockout here.

We would favour Manny Pacquiao in the knockout market but we can’t see Mayweather’s strong defensive stance being broken. If Pacquiao can unsettle Mayweather in the early rounds, then the Filipino’s speed and power could score an upset win by KO.

The most popular option is Mayweather on points or decision at $1.85. This is because if he’s going to win, it’s most probably going to the judges scorecards.

Mayweather has a great ability of being able to win rounds 10-9, and that all adds up to a unanimous decision victory. Punters are warming to the $1.85 price because it’s significantly better than his head-to-head odds.

Total rounds:

Under 10.5 – $3.45
Over 10.5 – $1.28

Seeing as this fight isn’t guaranteed to go the distance, the $3.45 at Sportsbet.com.au for Under 10.5 looks like good value.

That being said, both fighters have been going to round 12 more often than not lately so multi-bettors might want to include the Over 10.5 in their multi-bets.

Round betting for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao

Round betting is simply picking which round either fighter will win by technical knockout or knockout.

Due to the high-risk nature of this betting type, the odds are in the punters favour and it can reward those willing to take the extra risk.

Pacquiao scored a TKO win against Miguel Cotto in round 12 which would pay $56 at Sportsbet.com.au to happen against Mayweather.

He stopped Ricky “who ate all the pies” Hatton in round 2 in 2009 – paying $56 for history to repeat against Mayweather.

Manny Pacquiao round betting:

Round 1 – $67
Round 2 – $56
Round 3 – $51 at Sportsbet.com.au
Rounds 4/5/6 – $41
Round 7 – $36
Rounds 8/9 – $31
Round 10 – $36
Round 11 – $41
Round 12 – $56

Floyd Mayweather round betting:

Round 1 – $81
Round 2 – $76
Round 3 – $56
Round 4/5 – $51
Round 6/7/8/9/10 – $41
Round 11 – $51
Round 12 – $56 at WilliamHill.com.au

Manny Pacquiao has a better chance of knocking Mayweather out in the early rounds of the fight. Manny likes to come out swinging and has a good chance of catching Mayweather with a surprise left hook.

Mayweather is unlikely to score via knockout but were chosen round 12 because he might have worn Pacquiao down by that point. If Pacquiao is chasing a victory he might let his guard down, giving Money Mayweather his chance to win in style.

Exotic betting options for Mayweather vs. Pacquiao

There are plenty of exotic betting options available to punters for the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao fight.

“To be knocked down” is an interesting option available at Sportsbet.com.au. Both fighters are paying $4.40 to be knocked down, which could easily happen with two fighters that have power and also the ability to get back up.

Both Mayweather and Pacquiao are paying $4.40 for this option, but remember, if you select Floyd Mayweather ($4.40) at Sportsbet.com.au, you’re betting on Mayweather to get knocked to the canvas.

There is of course an option that neither punter will get knocked down. This is currently paying $1.46.

The ‘Exact winning method” market supplies some interest for exotic punters who can bet on how the fight will be decided.

Unanimous decision is the current favourite at $1.67 but there has been support for technical knockout at $4.50. Our favourite is the split decision ($6 at CrownBet.com.au) as this fight has a high chance of being controversial, and what better way to end it than having a nervous split decision judges count.

One of the more niche markets available is the “Gone in 60 seconds” option. No, this isn’t about the Nicolas Cage movie, but moreso about whether Mayweather or Pacquiao can win within one minute of the bell ringing.

Clearly you’d want big odds for something this rare to happen and Sportsbet have delivered.

1. Either fighter to win within 60 seconds – $51
2. Manny Pacquiao to win within 60 seconds – $91
3. Floyd Mayweather to win within 60 seconds – $101

One brave punter has put $1000 on this to happen which might seem like charity money, but you just never know in the boxing world. Good luck to him!

The “most punches landed” option is the closest the two fighters are in odds. Floyd Mayweather is currently at $1.82 with Luxbet.com to land the most punches, whereas Pacquiao is slight-outsider at $1.91.

Pacquiao will come out swinging, but that doesn’t mean his punch-count will overhaul Mayweather’s come round 12.

Mayweather has the ability to punch with great accuracy and his punch count is often overlook. These punches have to land, and we favour Mayweather in this option.

Who we think will win

The more lead-up coverage you watch, the more we tend to favour manny Pacquiao, but we can’t overlook the natural greatness that is Floyd Mayweather.

The Las Vegas native has yet to be defeated and whether that is a positive leading into this fight or not, we’ll stick with him till he retires.

Manny Pacquiao will try push the tempo in the early rounds and catch Floyd off-guard, but Mayweather’s defence is the best in the welterweight division.

Mayweather has drifted out to $1.50 with Sportsbet.com.au and that’s a much better priced than he opened at.

Boxing is the winner regardless of which fighter is victorious, so enjoy this once in a lifetime fight between two of the best welterweights the world has ever seen.