MLB futures betting markets update after trade deadline
- By: Scott Jack
- August 4, 2015
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THE MLB non-waiver trade deadlines has come and gone – the deadline was this past Friday at 4pm ET.
There weren’t too many “blockbuster” deals made at the deadline, but a number of players, especially pitchers, will be playing with new teams to finish the 2015 MLB regular season.
Let’s take a look at the biggest MLB trade deadline trades and then recap the 2015 MLB futures betting markets.
Recapping the 2015 MLB trade deadline:
(RP) Tyler Clippard – Traded to the Mets
(RF) Shane Victorino – Traded to the Angels
(3B) Aramis Ramirez – Traded to the Pirates
(RP) Steve Cishek – Traded to the Cardinals
(LF) Kelly Johnson – Traded to the Mets
(3B) Juan Uribe – Traded to the Mets
(RF) Brandon Moss – Traded to the Cardinals
(RP) Jonathan Papelbon – Traded to the Nationals
(SP) Mat Latos – Traded to the Dodgers
(SP) Alex Wood – Traded to the Dodgers
(SP) Mike Leake – Traded to the Giants
(SP) Scott Kazmir – Traded to the Astros
(CF) Carlos Gomez – Traded to the Astros
(SS) Jose Reyes – Traded to the Rockies
(SS) Troy Tulowitzki – Traded to the Blue Jays
(SP) Johnny Cueto – Traded to the Royals
(SP) Cole Hamels – Traded to the Rangers
(SP) David Price – Traded to the Blue Jays
(CF) Yoenis Cespedes – Traded to the Mets
These were the biggest MLB trade deadline moves that will help teams make the MLB playoffs this season.
So, which teams got better and have improved their chances of making the 2015 MLB playoffs?
Adding Cueto is a nice move for the Royals, but he isn’t going to improve this team too much. The Astros and Blue Jays improved the most in the American League, while the Mets and Dodgers improved the most in the National League.
World Series futures betting odds update
Let’s take a look at what teams’ futures odds have improved the most in the past month.
All of the betting odds below are from Bovada.lv (USA) and Bodog.eu (Canada).
Kansas City Royals (62-42) – Updated World Series odds: +400 (4/1)
The Royals were priced at 8/1 on July 1 and they’re now priced at just 4/1 to win the World Series. No other team is priced lower in the 2015 MLB World Series futures betting market, but are the Royals worth betting at these odds?
KC added Cueto to improve an already strong pitching rotation. The Royals rank sixth in runs allowed (3.75 RPG) and eighth in team ERA (3.58 ERA). They didn’t add any big bats, but the Royals already average 4.32 RPG (10th).
Kansas City just lost 3 of 4 to the Blue Jays and can’t continue sliding with this much time left in the season.
New York Yankees (59-45) – Updated World Series odds: +1000 (10/1)
The Yankees decided to stay quiet during trade deadline week – only adding Dustin Ackley in a minor trade.
However, since July 1 the Yankees odds have steamed in from 20/1 to 10/1, which is the second biggest movement we say this past month in the World Series futures market. The Yankees still lead the AL East, but can they hold on?
If the offense falters at all – the Yankees will slide. They score 4.92 RPG (2nd), but allow 4.35 RPG (21st).
Los Angeles Angels (55-49) – Updated World Series odds: +1400 (14/1)
LAA are on a 1-9 run and have to turn things around soon to keep pace with the Astros in the AL West. The Angels are 4-games back of Houston and the Astros definitely has the better trade deadline last week.
The Angels needed hitters and bullpen depth, but they only addressed one area. LAA brought on three outfielders (David Murphy, David DeJesus and Victorino, but it’s no guarantee that any of these veterans will help the Angels depth.
Despite a bad run in July – the Angels steamed in from 25/1 to 14/1 in the World Series futures market.
New York Mets (55-50) – Updated World Series odds: +1800 (18/1)
The Mets were 25/1 on July 1st and they’ve been bet into 18/1 at most shops now, including Bovada.lv.
You have to like how the Mets look after the trade deadline. Getting Cespedes late was icing on the cake – Cespedes has 18 HR’s on the season and will add some pop to this Mets line-up, which ranks last in runs scored (3.55 RPG).
Pitching has been winning the Mets games all season – they rank third in runs allowed (3.57 RPG) and third in team ERA (3.24 ERA). The Mets just swept the Nationals (3-0), which is the team they’re battling for first in the NL East.
Los Angeles Dodgers (60-45) – Updated World Series odds: +700 (7/1)
LAD have only gone from 8/1 to 7/1 in the World Series market this past month. The Dodgers added two starting pitchers in Latos and Wood to bolster an already strong pitching rotation that ranks second in runs allowed (3.51 RPG).
Come playoff time, everyone wants pitching and the Dodgers have exactly that.
The Dodgers hold a 2.5-game lead on the Giants in the NL West after going on a 4-game winning streak. If the Dodgers can make the MLB playoffs, which they should, they’re going to be tough to beat with the rotation they have now.
Toronto Blue Jays (55-52) – Updated World Series odds: +1600 (16/1)
The Blue Jays aren’t getting too much love by the sportsbooks, as they have only come in from 20/1 since July 1st. I like the value at 16/1, but it remains to be seen if this team can make the playoffs for the first time since 1993.
Adding Price and Tulowitzki are great moves. Price just won his first game this afternoon with the Blue Jays.
Toronto needs to try and catch the Yankees in the AL East, as they need home advantage in the playoffs if possible. The Jays are 5.5-games back of the NYY and both teams are 6-4 in their last 10 games.
Houston Astros (60-46) – Updated World Series odds: +1400 (14/1)
Houston have steamed in a bit, moving from 16/1 to 14/1 in the World Series betting markets. Houston have a 4-game lead on the Angels still in the NL West and they’re looking good to earn a wild card spot at the very least.
I like the additions of Gomez and Kazmir, especially considering the Astros aren’t typically a team that goes out and trades for impact players at the deadline. Houston is clearly all-in on making the playoffs for the first time since 2005.
The Astros pitching has been excellent (3.65 RPG – 5th) all season – yet they still get little respect in the AL.
I like the Mets (18/1) and Astros (14/1) at this point in the season. Both teams are playing great baseball, are paying well in the futures market still and considerably improved at the trade deadline.
Best Bets: Mets +1800 & Astros +1400 at the Bovada Sportsbook
Updated odds to win the World Series – August 2015
Kansas City Royals +400
Los Angeles Dodgers +700
St. Louis Cardinals +750
Washington Nationals +900
New York Yankees +1000
San Francisco Giants +1200
Houston Astros +1400
Los Angeles Angels +1400
Chicago Cubs +1600
Pittsburgh Pirates +1600
Toronto Blue Jays +1600
New York Mets +1800
Minnesota Twins +3300
Baltimore Orioles +4000
Detroit Tigers +4000
Chicago White Sox +5000
Cleveland Indians +5000
Tampa Bay Rays +5000
Texas Rangers +5000
Boston Red Sox +6600
San Diego Padres +6600
Atlanta Braves +10000
Arizona Diamondbacks +10000
Seattle Mariners +10000
Oakland Athletics +15000
Cincinnati Reds +30000
Colorado Rockies +50000
Miami Marlins +50000
Milwaukee Brewers +50000
Philadelphia Phillies +100000
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