Moreno vs Figueiredo UFC 270 betting picks & odds – 22/1/2022

Brandon Moreno will attempt to defend his UFC Flyweight Championship this Saturday night in a third consecutive fight against Deiveson Figueiredo. This intriguing championship matchup will serve as the co-main event at UFC 270 in Anaheim, California, ahead of the main event of Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane.

Moreno vs Figueiredo fight analysis

Brandon Moreno (19-5-2) was a significant underdog in each of his first two fights against Deiveson Figueiredo, but this time around he’s going off as the favorite. Moreno and Figueiredo fought to a five-round draw at UFC 256 and then ran it back six months later; that second fight had a decisive winner in Moreno. With that victory, Moreno won the UFC Flyweight Championship and improved to 5-0-2 over his last seven bouts.

Deiveson Figueiredo (20-2-1) was 20-1-0 as a professional including a 9-1 record in the UFC before these last two fights against Moreno. He entered the first fight against Moreno with five straight wins including four straight stoppage wins, three by submission and one by knockout. While the first fight was competitive and evenly-matched, Moreno had the clear edge in the second fight as Figueiredo seemed to be waiting for the perfect moment to strike. It will be interesting to see if he takes a more aggressive line in this fight.

Moreno vs Figueiredo betting predictions

It’s possible that Deiveson Figueiredo comes in with a better gameplan this time around and earns a victory. He was, after all, quite close to winning the first fight. There are a few factors working against him, though. Brandon Moreno’s training with Canelo Alvarez clearly paid off in the last fight as Moreno showed clear improvement in both the quality and quantity of his striking. Moreno is also just 28 years old, entering Saturday’s bout six years younger than his opponent.

But the biggest issue for Figueiredo is Moreno’s toughness. Figueiredo has earned 17 of his 20 career wins by stoppage with nine knockouts and eight submissions. Moreno has never been stopped; all five of his professional losses have come via decision. Taking away Figueiredo’s specialty of being able to stop fights early takes away many of his paths to victory. Especially with Moreno’s improved striking volume. Figueiredo is a tough fighter that deserves respect, but Moreno just seems to be a bad matchup for him. The top betting sites are paying around +250 for the favorite to win by decision, and we like those odds.