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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills betting odds and tips

NFL viewership up in week 10

1pm EDT Sunday, September 29 at New Era Field – Buffalo, NY

New England Patriots
Moneyline odds: -335 at Bovada
Betting line: -7 at -116.28
Record (ATS): 3-0 (2-1)

Buffalo Bills
Moneyline odds: +265 at Bovada
Betting line: +7 at -105.26
Record (ATS): 3-0 (2-1)

The Buffalo Bills have been the surprise team of the 2019 NFL season so far, but can they match it with the mighty New England Patriots?

The three teams the Bills have beaten have combined for only one win, while two of the three games were close. Thus, it is no surprise that online sportsbooks are giving them a seven-point home buffer against the reigning Super Bowl champions.


The Patriots are also 3-0 and, like the Bills, their schedule has been far from tough, as their three wins have come against teams that are all currently 0-3. Still, they have outscored those teams 106-17 and have had their way with Buffalo for over a decade.

The Pats won both games against their AFC East rivals last season and held the Bills to only 18 points.

Buffalo have one of the easiest schedules in the league, as after this game they have seven straight against teams that currently are below .500.




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In their last game, the Pats stayed perfect with a 30-14 win over the New York Jets. They led 20-0 at half-time and only allowed 105 total yards for the game.

Tom Brady went 28/42 for 306 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the win over New York, while Josh Gordon led the team with 893 receiving yards. While Rex Burkhead rushed for 47 yards, the Pats only rushed for 68 yards in the game.

Julian Edelman is listed as questionable for the trip to upstate New York and leads the Pats in receiving yards, but Brady still has no lack of targets and will provide the Buffalo D with their biggest test yet.

The Bills moved to 3-0 in their first home game of the year, beating the Cincinnati Bengals 21-17. Buffalo forced four turnovers and Josh Allen passed for 243 yards with a touchdown and an interception, with Dawson Knox leading the way with 68 receiving yards. Frank Gore rushed for 76 yards and Allen rushed for 46 out of a team total of 175 yards.

The run game will be key for Buffalo, who rank fifth in the NFL in rushing yards per game. The Patriots have given up the fewest yards, by far, in their first three games, with their run defense holding opponents to an average of 36.7 rushing yards per game.

New England Patriots betting trends

  • Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last six games facing teams from the AFC
  • Patriots are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games
  • Patriots have an Under record of 6-2 in their last eight home games

Buffalo Bills betting trends

  • Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
  • Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games
  • Bills have an Under record of 5-1 in their last six games

Patriots vs Bills head-to-head trends

  • Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Bills
  • Patriots are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games against the Bills
  • In the last seven games between these teams the Under record is 5-2

New England @ Buffalo betting predictions

New England Patriots -7 at -116.28 with Bovada

Even though the Pats have faced weak teams, we know they are for real. They have an all-time great in Brady and won the Super Bowl last season. The Bills have won their first three games, but their miserable record against New England will continue. Brady will have a good game and so will the Patriots defense, while the young Bills will make mistakes. Even giving up seven points on the road, the Pats are the pick in this game.


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