NFL 2021 Week 11 preview, best bets & value plays

The Green Bay Packers carry an 8-1 record into their matchup this Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11 of the 2021 NFL season. We’ve picked a winner in that game and also have plays in Sunday’s San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers matchups.

San Francisco 49ers (-6) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+6)

The San Francisco 49ers (4-5-0) snapped out of a 1-5 slump in impressive fashion when they crushed the Los Angeles Rams 31-10 on Monday Night Football as home underdogs. The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7-0) lost to the Indianapolis Colts 23-17 but did manage to cover the spread as a 10.5-point underdogs.

Jacksonville’s rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled to get much going on offense this season, and those struggles could easily continue against a San Francisco pass defense that ranks 6th best in the NFL in passing yards allowed (208.7 per game). But San Francisco’s offense isn’t all that strong either, and the Jaguars have been playing well on defense in recent weeks. Seven of Jacksonville’s last eight games have gone UNDER the posted total, and we anticipate this one will as well.

Green Bay Packers (-2) vs Minnesota Vikings (+2)

The Green Bay Packers (8-2-0) defeated the Seattle Seahawks 17-0 to pick up their ninth straight cover against the spread and their eighth win in their last nine games. The one game they didn’t win over that stretch was a 13-7 loss on the road to the Kanasas City Chiefs with starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers out due to COVID-19. The Packers enter this weekend ranked third in the NFL in both total defense (309.9 total yards allowed per game) and in scoring defense (18 points per game allowed).

The Minnesota Vikings (4-5-0) on the other hand have had an up-and-down season with a 3-3 SU and ATS record over their last six games. They rank right near the middle of the pack on both offense and defense. The Vikings are also just 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. With so many obvious signs pointing towards Green Bay and the spread still so low, we are actually going to go against the grain and take Minnesota. Because in spots like this where perception doesn’t match reality, oftentimes the sportsbooks know something that we don’t.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)

With starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s status for Sunday up in the air due to COVID-19 and the Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) coming off an ugly tie against the winless Detroit Lions, the Steelers have balooned up to 5.5-point underdogs against the Los Angeles Chargers (5-4-0).

This feels like an overreaction. Running back Najee Harris is having an excellent rookie season and will face a Chargers defense this Sunday that ranks dead last in the NFL against the run allowing 155.1 rushing yards per game. And second-year starting quarterback Justin Herbert has been struggling on offense this month, leading his team to a 1-3 SU and ATS slump over its last four games. Pittsburgh’s strong defense and running game should be able to keep this one close.