NFL 2021 Week 15 preview & best bets

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the biggest favorites on the board in NFL Week 15, going off at -11 at home against the New Orleans Saints. We’ve got a pick in that NFC South matchup to go along with plays in the New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans vs Pittsburgh Steelers games in this Sunday’s NFL betting picks.

New York Jets (+10) at Miami Dolphins (-10)

The New York Jets (3-10-0) fell to 1-5 over their last six games with a 30-9 loss to the New Orleans Saints last Sunday. New York’s only win over its last six games came against one of the few teams in the NFL worse than the Jets in the Houston Texans. The Jets’ last five losses have come by an average of 17.2 points per game.

The Miami Dolphins (6-7-0), meanwhile, have been trending in the right direction after opening the season with a 1-7 (2-5-1 ATS) record. Miami is a perfect 5-0 over its last five games in a stretch that includes a 24-17 road win over the Jets. This time around, the Dolphins will get to face the Jets on their home field, and will do so after getting a bye week off to rest and prepare. The Dolphins are 6-1 (7-0 ATS) over their last seven games against the Jets and should be in for another win and cover this Sunday.

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Tennessee Titans (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2)

The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1) are an underwhelming 1-3 (2-2 ATS) over their last four games, but all three of those losses have come on the road. At home, the Steelers are undefeated over their last five games with a 4-0-1 record. And historically they’ve been quite strong as a home underdog with a 10-4 (10-2-2 ATS) record in their last 14 games as one.

The Tennessee Titans (9-4-0) were looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender before superstar running back Derrick Henry was lost for the season to a foot injury. The Titans are 2-2 (1-3 ATS) over their last four games and have averaged only 17.3 points per game during this run. This point spread doesn’t seem to be factoring in how much better the Steelers are at home than they are on the road. We’ll take a shot on them as home dogs in this spot.

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New Orleans Saints (+11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11)

Last season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3-0) started an 8-0 (6-2 ATS) run in December that culminated in the team winning the Super Bowl in February. The Buccaneers seem to be on a similar run now with a 4-0 record over their last four games and an average of 32.3 points per game over that stretch. The New Orleans Saints (6-7-0), meanwhile, are just 1-5 (2-4 ATS) over their last six games, snapping a five-game losing streak last Sunday with a 30-9 win over the hopeless Jets.

Tampa Bay is clearly the better team, is at home, and is in strong form. But for whatever reason, the Saints just always have their number. New Orleans is 6-0 in its last six regular season games against the Buccaneers, including a 36-27 win as four-point underdogs earlier this year. The Bucs will probably win this time, but we can’t pass up on the 11 points.

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