NFL 2021 Week 9 preview & best bets

The Green Bay Packers put a seven-game win streak on the line this Sunday when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9 of the 2021 NFL season. We’ve got a pick in that matchup and a couple more in the Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers games.

Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) at New York Giants (+2.5)

Just a few weeks after the Las Vegas Raiders (5-2-0) were in the news for all the wrong reasons due to former head coach Jon Gruden’s racist and homophobic emails, the team is dealing with more off the field issues this week as former first-round pick Henry Ruggs III was responsible for a car accident under the influence of alcohol that killed the other driver. With so much bad news around the Raiders, it’s easy to have missed they are leading the AFC West with a 5-2 record and have back-to-back double-digit wins of 34-24 over the Denver Broncos and 33-22 over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Now the Raiders face the New York Giants (2-6-0), who have played fairly well over the last two weeks but are still a bottom-feeder team dealing with a ton of key injuries on offense. This point spread just doesn’t reflect how good Las Vegas is, and we are happy to take advantage of that.

Green Bay Packers (+7.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)

This game was originally going off as a dead even pick’em before the Green Bay Packers’ star quarterback Aaron Rodgers was ruled out of this game after testing positive for COVID-19. The Packers (7-1-0) now find themselves going off as huge 7.5-point underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs (4-4-0) despite being in the midst of a 7-0 straight up and against the spread winning streak.

You never know for sure what you are going to get from a backup quarterback making his first career start. But this line still feels like an overreaction. The Packers have one of the top ten defenses in the NFL and the Chiefs have been out of sorts all season ranking last in the NFL in turnover differential at -11. Assuming backup Jordan Love doesn’t completely melt down, we expect Green Bay’s defense to keep this one closer than the top football betting sites are projecting.

Arizona Cardinals (-1) at San Francisco 49ers (+1)

Like the Raiders game above, this is another instance where the road team just isn’t getting nearly enough respect. The Arizona Cardinals (7-1-0) could easily be 8-0 if not for a fluky play at the end of their 24-21 loss to the Packers last week. The San Francisco 49ers (3-4-0) are riddled with injuries, are 1-4 over their last five games, and are 0-3 straight up and against the spread at home this season.

You could argue that this is a “trap line”, but Arizona has been consistently undervalued on the road all season including going off as a 4-point underdog against the Los Angeles Rams (they won 37-20) and a 3-point underdog against the Cleveland Browns (they won 37-14). Arizona is 10-3 in its last 13 games against San Francisco. We’ll roll with the Cardinals until they give us a reason not to.