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NFL MVP odds update & best value bets – Week 3

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFL season is off to fiery start and we have seen some surprising performances thus far. In turn, the MVP odds have changed a lot, and while the favorites have largely stayed the same, there is value in some other spots. We are, however, only three games into the season, so it’s important to not overreact. For MVP futures, we are looking for quarterbacks on good teams as they are the only players who have a chance to win the award.

Three weeks into the season, Josh Allen is the clear favorite. The Bills star is +300 with Bovada to win the prestigious award, and that line is a little too short for our liking. It’s only been two games and he looks like he is in for a huge season, but there is better value elsewhere.

Next up on the favorite list are Lamar Jackson (+550) and Jalen Hurts (+600). Jackson’s quote has halved since last week, so if you weren’t already on him, you won’t get better odds from here on if he keeps performing like this. For Hurts, the concerns about his arm accuracy are still there and he should come back down to earth in the coming weeks.

Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes was on the second line of betting this time last week, but his odds have blown out to +700 following the Chiefs’ loss to the Colts in Week 2. The superstar QB’s well-documented blowup with the Kansas City offensive coordinator during that game may well have shifted his price out a little further than the result alone would have. While there is always the possibility that the Chiefs stumble again and Mahomes’ MVP odds drift further still, this is a decent quote for one of the best in the business.

Patrick Mahomes to win


Tom Brady – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are 2-1 and Tom Brady’s MVP odds have exploded from +875 out to +3000. That is due to the Bucs’ offensive struggles at the start of the season. Still, Brady has looked great and he is on a great team. Once his receivers get healthy, the Bucs and Brady will be borderline unstoppable. Also, there are murmurs that this will be Brady’s final season (again), so that narrative will work in this bet’s favor. At this price, this is likely the best value bet on the board – because if there’s anything we have learned from Brady’s 23-year career, it’s to never doubt him.

Tom Brady to win


Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals

Our last bet we recommend is simply a bet on talent. The Cardinals are off to a rocky start at 1-2 and their defense might be the worst in the league, so it looks like Kyler Murray is going to have to carry this team. That creates an interesting MVP narrative for the talented QB. Also, he has a depleted wide receiver group, so when DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore return, that will only help. As long as the Cardinals defense doesn’t keep this team from making the playoffs, Kyler will be in the MVP conversation.

Kyler Murray to win


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