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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, predictions & best bets

Steelers QB Kenny Pickett

Rosters are just about set and we are about a month and a half away from the start of the 2022 NFL season. Now can be the time to find some value on NFL awards futures, and one of the biggest awards each year is the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. This year, the award looks to be as open as any year and the favorite is at +700. Unlike the MVP award, the ROTY doesn’t always go to quarterbacks and there can be a lot of value in betting on skill-position players. Over the past 20 years, a quarterback has won the award nine times, a running back has won it seven times and a receiver has won it four times.

There is only one quarterback who is worth betting on winning ROTY, and that is Kenny Pickett at +700 with Bovada. Pickett was the only quarterback drafted in the first two rounds this year and is the only rookie QB with a chance of starting a majority of games this season. That being said, Pickett will likely sit behind Mitchell Trubisky to begin the year and may not start until midseason. If Trubisky plays well, Pickett may not get a chance this season. The Pittsburgh Steelers are in no rush to start Pickett, and because of that, he is a risky bet to win ROTY. There is better value elsewhere.

Next up on the list of favorites is running back Breece Hall. He was drafted early in the second round by the New York Jets and is expected to get a lot of touches out of the gate. However, the Jets have a bunch of other running backs who will get snaps and eat into Hall’s workload. The ROTY award is usually given based on total stats and not efficiency. While Hall could be an efficient running back that shows flashes of brilliance, he likely won’t compile the stats of other rookies. At +900 with most football betting sites, there is better value down the board.

After Hall is a trio of first round wide receivers at +1000. All three of Drake London, Chris Olave and Treylon Burks expect to start throughout the duration of this season and all should be impactful players. However, while London and Olave may have the opportunity to dominate, they are both on bad teams that project to have iffy QB situations. For a wide receiver to succeed, their quarterback needs to be good, and we cannot confidently say the Saints or Falcons will figure out their QB bugaboo. Stay away from betting on London and Olave to win the ROTY.

Burks is an interesting case. He will immediately step into A.J. Brown’s starting position after the Titans traded him on draft day. If Burks succeeds, he has the opportunity to run away with the award. That being said, Burks was a project pick and is likely the least NFL-ready receiver among the first-round picks. He has to fine tune his route running skills and that can take a while in the NFL. Burks should be a good player, but it won’t happen his rookie season and there are better receivers to bet on.

After those first-round receivers, there are two second-round wide receivers who are stepping into big roles on great offenses. The Green Bay Packers drafted Christian Watson to replace Davante Adams, and at +1000, he is a great value bet. There’s a chance that this season Watson becomes Aaron Rodgers’ preferred target, and if that happens, he could have a historic rookie season. We have seen Rodgers make any receiver look elite in past seasons and that could happen in this case. Watson will have the opportunity to succeed right away and he should be a big part of the offense. As long as he doesn’t completely blow it, Watson has as good a situation as any rookie and +1000 could be a steal of a number.

Our favorite bet on the board, however, is Kansas City Chiefs second-round selection Skyy Moore. Much like Watson, Moore could immediately step into a starting position on an elite offense. The Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill this offseason and that has opened up a lot of targets. While Travis Kelce will likely be the first option on the Chiefs offense, Moore could become the next guy up. And if he does, he could dominate. Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and if he likes Moore, he will pepper him with opportunities. At +1200, Moore is a great bet to win ROTY, and while his situation echoes Watson’s, many NFL analysts believe Moore will be a better NFL wide receiver. If Skyy takes the opportunity, he will run away with the award, and +1200 is a great number to get him at.

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