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Oliveira v Makhachev UFC 280 betting picks & best odds – 22/10/22

UFC 280: Charles Oliveira v Islam Makhachev

Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev

Latest Odds & Fight Info

Main Event odds Oliveira +155 at Bovada | Makhachev -188.68 at Bovada
When Saturday, October 22 – main card from 10pm GST
Where Etihad Arena – Yas Island, United Arab Emirates
Watch Live ESPN+ PPV (US), BT Sport (UK), Main Event (AU)

If the matchup between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev in the UFC 280 main event this Saturday doesn’t get you excited, you are just not a serious fight fan. The bout pits a pair of unstoppable talents on win streaks of 10 or more fights. This is a fight that needed to happen, and with five scheduled rounds to settle the argument, the undisputed king of the lightweights will emerge with UFC gold from this weekend’s clash in the United Arab Emirates.

There is something freakish and otherworldly about Charles Oliveira (33-8-0). He might just be the best active martial artist on the planet. His skills are like pure silk. He is deadly from any position. Recent fights saw him drop both Michael Chandler and Justin Gaethje with a single punch. His submission game is without peer. He knocks you down and then submits you. This is MMA in its purest form.

If there’s a chink in Oliveira’s armour it might be his chin. After 42 professional fights, Oliveira has been dropped in his last few by Gilbert Burns, Chandler, and Gaethje. This can be a sign that father time is closing in. Oliveira does possess remarkable powers of recovery, but he will be knocked out cold eventually.

We witnessed this phenomenon with Kamaru Usman, who looked unbeatable until his fifth-round headkick KO arrived courtesy of Leon Edwards. Usman had also been dropped in lead-up bouts, so it is a reliable sign of impending defeat. Damage accumulates, and once a fighter’s chin is gone, there is no way of regaining that toughness.

While Oliveira is the sublime Brazilian panther, stalking his prey, ready to unleash hidden power, Islam Makhachev (22-1-0) is a brutal Russian bear. The only fighter ever to win training rounds from Khabib Nurmagomedov in the gym, Makhachev is a huge lightweight with the strength to rag-doll men of any size.

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Makhachev’s only professional loss occurred back in October 2015, and he has looked unstoppable since. While he has been fighting inferior competition to Oliveira, Makhachev has looked dominant in all his victories and appears ready for his shot at UFC gold. Most recently he stopped a hapless Bobby Green in round one with heavy punches and submitted Dan Hooker with a first-round kimura.

Makhachev is a well-rounded combatant but is most devastating on the mat, with top position, delivering heavy ground-and-pound and looking for chokes and other submissions. On the feet he applies forward pressure and looks to dictate the pace of the fight. While he has not fought across five rounds before, like his mentor Nurmagomedov, Makhachev is from a warrior class that lives to fight and train. This breed of man doesn’t get out of shape between fights, they don’t party, and they lead austere, focused, and dedicated lives governed by a strict moral code.

The online betting markets are heavily favouring Makhachev in this fight, which is surprising. It looks like a classic coin flip that will be decided by a critical second or two. The consensus seems to be that Makhachev is the hungrier fighter, and there is Oliveira’s accumulated damage to consider.

That said, while Oliveira is drawing toward the end of his career, we suspect there might still be some magic in his hands. At the odds presented, we are obliged to back the Brazilian. Until he is dethroned, we must respect Oliveira’s freakish talents. His reign will end someday, and Makhachev might be the man to do it, but we are hoping that the Brazilian is not finished just yet.

All eyes will be glued to the scales when Oliveira climbs aboard. He missed weight prior to his last fight after some apparent discrepancy between the scales in his room and the official equipment. There will be millions riding on his ability to make 155 pounds. He has looked calm and relaxed in the lead-up, sporting his trademark bleached hair and easy swagger, and we can only hope that his weight regimen is on target.

Charles Oliveira to win


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