Olympics Day 12 betting picks, top odds & value bets – 4/8/2021

The women’s golf tournament at the 2020 Olympic Games begins on Tuesday and will have a tough act to follow after last week’s thrilling men’s tournament went to a seven-man playoff for bronze. The first round of that event as well as some interesting quarterfinal matchups in women’s basketball and men’s water polo are featured in today’s best bets for Tokyo 2020.

Women’s Golf: Nasa Hataoka first-round leader

This year’s field for the women’s golf is stacked with talented players including top Americans Nelly Korda and Danielle King and South Korean contenders including Inbee Park, Jin Young Ko, Hyo Joo Kim and Sei Young Kim. But there is some value to be had down the board, and we are highlighting Nasa Hataoka as a nice long-shot to finish the first round atop the leaderboard.

Hataoka has gotten off to a red-hot start in two of her last four tournaments, sharing the lead at the end of the first round of the Meijer LPGA Classic with a seven-under-par 65 in June and crushing the field in the first round of the Marathon LPGA Classic with a 10-under-par 61 last month. Considering these recent hot starts under her belt and the fact that she’ll be playing in her home country this week, it seems more likely than 22/1 that Hataoka could end Thursday at the top of the list.

Women’s Basketball: Australia (+15.5) over United States

The United States women entered these Olympics as the clear favorites to win this tournament, and nothing has changed heading into the knockout stage. The USA went 3-0 in the groups as expected, but the team didn’t do so in dominant fashion. The Americans went 0-3 against the spread as they defeated Nigeria 81-72 as 31-point favorites, Japan 86-69 as 19.5-point favorites and France 93-82 as 13.5-point favorites.

Because the United States women have so much talent, the top basketball betting sites have no choice but to keep giving them lofty spreads to cover. Now they face an Australia team that has also been playing below standards in Tokyo with a 1-2 record including disappointing losses to Belgium (85-70) and China (76-74).

Another subpar effort from the Australians on Tuesday could lead to a blowout loss, but we expect a matchup with the tournament favorites to bring out the best in the Opals, who just defeated the USA 70-67 in an exhibition game last month. Look for a competitive game in this one and for the United States to fall to 0-4 ATS.

Men’s Water Polo: United States (+5.5) over Spain

The United States are coming off of a terrible performance in a 14-5 blowout loss to Greece, but before that misstep they had been solid with competitive losses against Hungary (11-8) and Italy (12-11) and wins of 15-13 over Japan and 20-3 over South Africa. The USA faces its toughest test yet in the knockout round against undefeated Spain.

Three of Spain’s five wins during the group stage came by four goals or less. And while past results do little to predict this year’s matchup, it’s hard not to note that these two teams have met in each of the last two Olympic Games and played in extremely competitive matchups. Spain won 8-7 in the semifinals in 2012, and they backed it up with a 10-9 win in the group stage in 2016.

Most recently, these two teams met in Italy back in February and Spain came out on top 15-9. That same score would give Spain just enough to cover the 5.5-goal spread they are laying with most sports betting sites, though we see this pesky American squad doing enough this time around to keep the final score closer.