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Olympics Day 15 predictions & best value bets – August 7, 2021

2020 Olympics betting picks

The United States women’s water polo team is set to take on Spain in the gold medal match of the Olympic Games, while the American men will face Japan in the men’s baseball final. We will also see Spain clash with Brazil in the men’s football final as we take a look at the best bets for this weekend’s action in Tokyo.

Women’s Water Polo: United States vs Spain

The United States’ women’s water polo team is a staggering 133-4 since picking up the gold medal in the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games. The USA suffered a shocking 10-9 defeat to Hungary in the group stage, but has otherwise been dominant with wins of 25-4 over Japan, 12-7 over China, 18-5 and 15-11 over Russia, and 16-5 over Canada. When the United States met Spain in the 2019 World Championships, they came away with an 11-6 win.

Spain has taken a far less dominant path to the finals. Since blowing out South Africa 29-4, Spain is 4-0-1 with an average margin of victory of just 3.75 goals per game. The Spanish women’s team has clearly earned its right to be here, but they will likely be outclassed against a United States women’s squad that has so thoroughly dominated this sport in recent years.

United States -4.5 goals


Men’s Baseball: United States vs Japan

The United States and Japan have been the two best baseball teams in Tokyo by a decent margin this summer. The USA has gone 4-0 with a +16 run differential in the four games they have played against teams other than Japan and Japan has gone 3-0 with a +7 run differential in the three games they have played not including the one it played against the Americans.

When these two teams did clash earlier this week, the United States carried a 6-5 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning before the host nation scored a run to send the game into extra innings 6-6. Japan would go on to win the game 7-6 with a run in the bottom of the 10th in what was one of the best games of the tournament thus far.

The USA has a solid chance of winning this game outright. But win or lose, it should be a tight game, making the Americans a nice underdog pick on the runline getting an extra run for insurance.

United States +1.5 runs


Men’s Football: Spain vs Brazil

There is very little separating these two squads heading into the gold medal game. Both teams are loaded with elite talent across the board; Spain may have the slight edge on defense and Brazil may have the slight edge on offense, but there aren’t any clear holes on either side. Spain has three wins and two draws so far in Tokyo and Brazil has four wins and one draw. Brazil is the defending gold medal champion after winning in 2016, while Spain may be the ever so slightly better team on paper.

This is just one of those matches that should be a pick’em, but instead the bettors have made Brazil a -130 favorite to win the gold. Spain is too good to pass up on here getting +100 odds. Look for a low-scoring game in which the first team to break through very likely holds on for the win; we’ll take a shot on Spain being that team.

Spain to win gold

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