Pavlovich v Blaydes UFC Fight Night preview & best bets – 22/4/23

Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from the Apex in Las Vegas is headlined by a classic heavyweight matchup between Sergei Pavlovich and Curtis Blaydes. Both fighters are building on impressive winning streaks and eyeing a future shot at newly crowned heavyweight champ Jon Jones. Read on for our in-depth fight preview and betting picks.

Pavlovich v Blaydes main event preview

Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes

Sergei Pavlovich (17-1-0) is a Russian powerhouse with a near-faultless record. His only loss occurred in 2018 when he was knocked out by Alistair Overeem, and he enters this contest on an impressive five-fight win streak. All five victories were secured via first-round finish, and with a No.3 ranking, Pavlovich is inching toward heavyweight title contender status. He combines a Greco-Roman wrestling background with sambo-style grappling and devastating punching power.

Pavlovich’s most recent trip to the cage resulted in a lightning-fast knockout of Tai Tuivasa that earned a Performance of the Night bonus. His previous bout was concluded with an equally rapid KO of Derrick Lewis. He has only been the distance on three occasions but won all three fights, so the latter rounds should hold no fears for the Russian.

Curtis Blaydes (17-3-0) enters this bout with a solid three-fight winning streak. He got lucky when Tom Aspinall blew out his knee at the first exchange in London, but Blaydes looked impressive stopping Chris Daukaus in the second round, and prior to that ground out a solid decision win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

Blaydes is a decorated wrestler and will be looking to take this fight to the mat, where he can unleash some heavy ground-and-pound. This strategy will be more effective if he can land some standup strikes and get Pavlovich guessing. If the American is forced into a standup war, he is almost certain to find himself staring at the ceiling lights with the referee shielding him from further damage.

Pavlovich v Blaydes UFC betting predictions

This fight will be decided by where it takes place. If Pavlovich can avoid the takedowns via effective defensive wrestling, he should emerge with the win. If Blaydes can land an early double leg shot, he can then work in his preferred domain and will be favoured to close out the victory. Blaydes has been knocked out thrice across his career by heavy-hitters Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, so he will need to stay well clear of his opponent’s devastating straight punches.

We are tipping Pavlovich to prevail in this bout at nice odds. His most logical path to victory is via knockout, so an even better price can be secured for that outcome. We are keeping it simple, though.

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