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Poirier v Gaethje 2 betting picks & odds – UFC 291 main event

Dustin Poirier v Justin Gaethje – UFC 291

MMA Betting Odds & Fight Info

Main Event odds Poirier -156.25 at Bovada | Gaethje +127 at Bovada
When Saturday, July 29 – main card from 8pm MDST
Where Delta Center – Salt Lake City, USA
Watch Live ESPN+ (US), BT Sport (UK), ESPN (AU), UFC Fight Pass

The UFC 291 main event in Salt Lake City is a compelling rematch between Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, two of the greatest active lightweights. Poirier emerged victorious when the fighters met in 2018, but much has transpired since and we are expecting a different outcome this time around.

UFC 291: Poirier v Gaethje 2 main event preview

Dustin Poirier

Dustin Poirier


Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje

29-7-0 MMA records 25-4-0
34 Age 34
5’9″ Height 5’11”
156lbs Weight 155lbs
72″ Reach 69.5″
USA Nationality USA

Justin Gaethje (25-4-0) has been at the top of the lightweight division since 2018. His record since then stands at 6-2 with the losses coming against champions Charles Oliveira and Khabib Nurmagomedov. He captured the interim title in 2020 with a one-sided beatdown of Tony Ferguson but could not unify the belts against Nurmagomedov, who is considered a serious contender for GOAT status.

Gaethje’s most recent trip to the UFC octagon displayed a new level to his game. The 34-year-old has always been a stand-and-trade fighter, often to his detriment, but against Rafael Fiziev he employed a more measured and tactical gameplan. He stayed at his longer range, avoided the counter-striking, and earned a tidy decision victory rather than press for a risky knockout. Gaethje is blessed with phenomenal striking power and defensive wrestling and might have been a dominant champion at 155 pounds during another era.

Dustin Poirier (29-7-0) is most famous for his pair of 2021 TKO wins over Irish superstar Conor McGregor. The 34-year-old is 8-2 since 2017 with the losses also coming against Oliveira and Nurmagomedov.

The parallels between these two combatants is uncanny. Poirier has similarly adjusted his fighting style in recent years to extend his longevity in the sport. And, like Gaethje, he won the interim lightweight belt but immediately lost it to Nurmagomedov.

Dustin Poirier v Justin Gaethje betting predictions

Beyond the whole BMF belt hoopla, which is considered by purists to be something of a joke, this is an enthralling stylistic matchup. The winner will be decided during the bout by the athlete who can most effectively outsmart the man opposite. Both fighters have the full array of MMA weapons at their disposal, but Poirier might have a slight edge on the mat if he can overcome Gaethje’s wrestling and score the takedown.

Poirier’s win over Gaethje in 2018 will not play a significant role given the cool professionalism of both fighters. That fact is not reflected in the odds, however, as the top UFC betting sites are paying a surprisingly good price for Gaethje to win. If he can bring the fight IQ that was displayed in his most recent outing, where he paced his output, was not drawn into needless exchanges, and worked from the safety of long-range, the betting underdog should emerge with the spoils.

Justin Gaethje to win


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