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Santos vs Walker UFC Vegas 38 main event preview & top picks

UFC betting

Thiago Santos vs Johnny Walker

Latest Odds & Fight Info

Main Event odds Santos -170 at Bovada | Walker +145 at Bovada
When Saturday, October 2 – main card from 5pm PDT
Where UFC Apex – Las Vegas, Nevada
Watch Live ESPN+ (US), BT Sport (UK), ESPN (AU), UFC Fight Pass,

Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker clash in the main event of UFC Vegas 38 this Saturday night. Santos will be looking to snap a three-fight winning streak, while Walker will be looking for a statement win against a top-five ranked light heavyweight opponent.

Santos vs Walker fight analysis

Thiago Santos (21-9-0) got off to a great start in the light heavyweight division with wins over Eryk Anders, Jimi Manuwa, and Jan Blachowicz. His run earned him a UFC Lightweight Championship bout against Jon Jones which he fought admirably in but lost by split decision after badly injuring his leg during the fight. Santos has not been able to regain his momentum since returning from that injury, losing by submission to Glover Teixeira and by decision to Aleksandar Rakic.

Johnny Walker (18-5-0) snapped a two-fight losing streak with his knockout win over Ryan Spann last September. Walker was 9-0 over his previous nine fights including a 3-0 start to his UFC career before losing back-to-back fights to Corey Anderson and Nikita Krylov. Each of Walker’s four wins in the UFC have come by first-round knockout, and 15 of his 18 career wins overall have come by way of knockout.

Santos vs Walker betting predictions

It’s hard to imagine this one going five rounds. Both of these fighters are excellent strikers – they have 15 knockout wins apiece – and will be comfortable trading blows going for the finish in the center of the octagon. On the one hand, Thiago Santos is now 37 years old and hasn’t won since coming back from a major leg injury. On the other hand, his recent losses have all come against outstanding opponents in Jones, Teixeira, and Rakic.

How much does Santos have left in the tank? That’s the question bettors have to answer in this one. This will be the toughest opponent that Johnny Walker has faced to date. If Santos’s heart or body aren’t in this one, Walker has the power to take advantage. But if Santos is in top form, he will likely be too much for Walker to overcome at this stage in his career.

We are going to go with the veteran in this one. There may be some value on Walker in a bout that could just come down to which striker lands the winning blow first. But if Santos is able to keep his opponent at bay with his kicks early on, he should be able to eventually take advantage with a knockout win when Walker tires out.

Thiago Santos by KO/TKO


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