Serie A 2021/22 Matchweek 16 preview, best bets & value picks

Napoli will try to hold on to its slim lead atop the Serie A table this Saturday when it hosts Atalanta in a Matchweek 16 matchup between two of the league’s top four teams. AS Roma vs Inter Milan and Venezia vs Hellas Verona are also on this weekend’s list of Serie A soccer betting picks.

AS Roma vs Inter Milan

AS Roma (8-1-6) had a two-match win streak snapped on Wednesday with a 1-0 loss on the road against Bologna. Roma carries a 5-1-1 record at home into this Saturday’s matchup against Inter Milan but is just 1-1-1 in its last three home matches since opening the season with a 4-0-0 record at home. Inter Milan (10-4-1) is unbeaten in its last seven matches with a 5-2-0 record including a current stretch of three straight wins.

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These two clubs had played to six straight draws before Inter beat Roma 3-1 at home in May. Given that recent history between these two teams, it’s tempting to take a shot on the draw here. But Inter has been far more consistent in attack this season and Roma only has one draw in 2021-22; this is far more likely to end in an Inter victory.

Napoli vs Atalanta

Napoli (11-3-1) looked like it might run away with the Serie A championship this season when it got off to a perfect 8-0-0 start and had a 10-1-0 record through its first 11 games. The club has come back down to earth since then with a 1-2-1 record over its last four matches, most recently settling for a 2-2 draw on the road against Sassuolo. Now Napoli returns home, where it is 6-1-0 so far this season.

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Atalanta (9-4-2) is red-hot with a 6-2-0 record over its last eight games that includes a current stretch of four straight wins. This has been one of Serie A’s best road teams all season as well with a 6-1-0 record away from home. A road test against Napoli will be Atalanta’s toughest of the season so far, but given the current form of these two teams, we can’t pass on Atalanta at nice underdog odds.

Venezia vs Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona (5-5-5) extended its undefeated streak at home to six games with a 0-0 draw against Cagliari on Tuesday after having won each of its previous five home games. This came three days after losing to Sampdoria 3-1 on the road, falling to 0-4-3 away from home in the process.

When clear-cut betting trends like Verona’s home-and-away play emerge, it’s best to roll with them until the team gives you a reason not to. Venezia (4-3-8) isn’t a very good team and has lost two straight, but those losses both came against top-tier clubs in Atalanta and Inter. The home club was 2-1-0 in its previous three matches before those two, and facing a Verona team that can’t win on the road, we’ll take a shot on the draw odds in this one. More risk-averse bettors should consider a play on Venezia against the spread on the two-way line, as an outright upset is a real possibility too.