Serie A 2021/22 Matchweek 26 betting picks & top odds

The top three teams in Serie A all face clubs in the bottom half of the table this weekend as AC Milan visits Salernitana, Inter Milan hosts Sassuolo, and Napoli visits Cagliari. Are there any potential trip-ups in these matchups? We’ll take a closer look at all three of these matches in this weekend’s Serie A soccer betting picks.

Salernitana vs AC Milan

AC Milan (17-4-4) followed up its impressive road win over Inter Milan with an underwhelming 1-0 win at home over Sampdoria on Sunday. Prior to the Inter win, Milan lost at home to Spezia 2-1 and played to a 0-0 draw at home against Juventus. Salernitana (3-4-17) has played to back-to-back draws against Spezia and Genoa since going 3-2-17 over its previous 22 games.

We’re going to take a stab on the UNDER in this match. Milan hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire with its offense of late, but they have been playing well defensively over their last three games, and defending Salernitana shouldn’t be too difficult of a task. The last match between these two teams ended in a Milan 2-0 win; expect a similar result here, with Milan scoring early and then just holding on to that lead until the final whistle.

Inter Milan vs Sassuolo

Inter Milan (16-6-2) is just 1-2-1 over its last four matches since going 8-0-0 over its previous eight. It’s worth noting that all three of those games that Inter didn’t win came against three of Serie A’s best teams in Atalanta, Napoli and AC Milan. Still, the club’s last three home wins against Torino, Lazio, and Venezia have only come by one goal; it’s been a while since we’ve seen an Internazionale blowout.

Sassuolo (7-9-9) has been quite resilient since its 4-2-6 start, compiling a 3-7-3 record over its last 13 matches. Sassuolo only lost by one goal in a 2-1 loss at home to Inter earlier this season. The OVER is tempting, but at 3.5 goals it doesn’t leave much room for error, and a 2-1 Inter win seems like a very reasonable score. And there also isn’t much value in Inter as a -330 favorite on the three-way line despite how likely it is they will win. Our best bet here is Sassuolo +1.75, which pays in full with a one-goal loss and gets some money back with a two-goal loss.

Cagliari vs Napoli

Napoli (16-5-4) has been playing some great football of late with a 4-2-0 record over its last six games. The two draws came against top teams on the road against Juventus and at home against Inter Milan, and against lower-tier teams Napoli went 4-0 and outscored those foes nine goals to one. Cagliari (4-9-12) has also been playing well, climbing out of the relegation zone with a 3-2-1 run over its last six matches after going winless with a 0-4-7 record in its previous 11 games.

Unfortunately for Cagliari, that recent stretch of success is unlikely to continue against a team of Napoli’s caliber that is playing in strong form. Napoli is reasonably priced as a -195 road favorite here, and while it’s tempting to get greedy and bet on the two-way line at -1 (-119), we’d rather pay the extra chalk to keep the one-goal wins in the profit column for us. Look for a 1-0 or 2-0 victory in Napoli’s favor.