Serie A 2021/22 Matchweek 38 betting picks & top value bets

The fight for the Serie A championship comes down to the final week of the season as AC Milan visits Sassuolo and Inter Milan hosts Sampdoria. We’ve got betting tips those two key matches and a pick in Saturday’s Fiorentina vs Juventus clash in Serie A Matchweek 38.

Fiorentina vs Juventus

Juventus (20-10-7) looked to be on its way to a win on Monday with a 2-0 lead at home over Lazio at half-time, but the club would eventually settle for a 2-2 draw as Lazio equalized the score with two second-half goals. This marks the second straight game that Juventus has allowed two goals in after the club allowed one goal or less in each of its previous eight matches, going 6-1-1 over that stretch.

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Fiorentina (18-5-14) continued its recent slump with a 4-1 loss on the road against Sampdoria. The club is now just 1-0-4 in its last five matches since going 4-2-0 over its previous six matches. Juventus has not been playing its best football of late, but nothing about Fiorentina’s current form suggests the home club should be trusted as an even-money bet to win at home. We’ll take Juventus to win or to at least force a draw getting decent odds on the road team as a 0.5-goal underdog.

Inter Milan vs Sampdoria

Inter Milan (24-9-4) rolled to a 3-1 win on the road over Cagliari on Sunday to improve to 3-0-0 over its last three games and to 7-0-1 over its last eight games. In order to claim a second-straight Serie A title, Inter needs a win over Sampdoria and for AC Milan to lose to Sassuolo. Sampdoria (10-6-21) is 2-1-1 over its last four matches after beating Fiorentina 4-1 on Monday. This has been an impressive run given that the club was 3-0-11 over its previous 14 games.

It seems crystal clear that Internazionale will salute at home in this must-win game, but there’s no value at all in betting on them at -730 on the three-way line. And a bet on Inter as 2.5-point favorites also seems ill-advised; Inter Milan has only one win by three or more goals in its last 19 games, and Sampdoria has lost by three or more goals only once in its last 26 games. This two-way line makes Sampdoria the play as such big underdogs.

Sassuolo vs AC Milan

AC Milan (25-8-4) is 5-0-0 over its last five games and 10-5-0 over its last 15 games after defeating Atalanta 2-0 at home on Sunday. Sassuolo (13-11-13) snapped an 0-1-3 winless streak with a 3-1 road win over Bologna over the weekend. The club was 5-2-1 in its previous seven games prior to that four-match slump.

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Milan should win this one easily enough, though it is worth noting that Sassuolo did beat the Rossoneri 3-1 on the road back in November, so the result certainly isn’t a trivial one. We are leaning heavily towards the UNDER 3.25 goals in this spot. Milan only needs a draw to secure the Serie A title, so once the club has one-goal lead, it should be content to stick to defending. Nine of AC Milan’s last 11 games have had three goals or less scored; look for that trend to continue on Sunday.

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