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Sunday’s NFL top betting picks & betting preview | October 9 2022

NFL football tips

The NFL Week Five slate is already underway and we have no shortage of intriguing matchups. While the Thursday Night game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos was one of the worst offensive football games in recent memory, the coming primetime games should be much more entertaining. Here are our best picks for those games and more.

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans

This has the potential to be a pretty gross game. The Washington Commanders are 1-3 and have struggled on offense in their recent three game skid. The Titans are 2-2 but haven’t looked anything like the team that won their division last season. In this battle, we are going to take the home team. The Commanders have an awful QB in Carson Wentz but they do possess a lot of receiving talent. The Titans have the fourth worst passing defense in the league and have no ability to rush the QB. This actually creates an environment where Wentz will have the ability to succeed and the lack of a pass rush will allow his receivers to get open. We like the Commanders to look better on offense and easily cover in this matchup.

The Titans are also a rushing-centric offense. Of course, when you have Derrick Henry, one of the best running backs in the league, that makes sense. However, it’s also due to the fact they have no receiver talent and QB Ryan Tannehill is also not very good. Fortunately for the Commanders, the way to beat them is through the air and we do not expect the Titans to do that. The Commanders have the 13th best rushing defense but the 10th worst passing defense. While that’s not impressive by any means, we expect them to do good enough against the Titans offense to eke out their second win of the season.

Washington Commanders +1.5

-109.89
@
Bovada

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

This game should be a get-right game for Tampa Bay. They have lost two straight close games to good teams and now will return home to play one of the worst teams in the league, the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons haven’t been able to stop anyone and that should continue in this game. Simply put, we expect the Bucs to score a lot and when the Bucs score, Mike Evans scores. He and QB Tom Brady are always on the same page in the red zone and Evans has 30 touchdowns in his 33 regular season games with Tom Brady. In this game, the Bucs should have plenty of red zone opportunities and Evans should be able to come down with yet another TD. At basically even odds, this is a steal and the odds should be closer to -114.94 with the top betting sites.

Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer

-114.94
@
Bovada

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Once again, we are taking a divisional home underdog. The 2-2 New York Jets will host the 3-1 Miami Dolphins and while Miami is objectively a better team, the Jets have been very scrappy this year. They have a plethora of solid receiving options and while Miami boast a strong secondary, they do not have the best pass rush and the Jets receivers will be able to get open. The key will be sophomore QB Zach Wilson’s accuracy. While he struggled for large parts of last week’s game, he came alive in the fourth quarter and showed all the talent that made him the second overall pick two years ago. We expect the Jets to keep this close and be within the number for the majority of this game.

The Dolphins will also be without their starting QB, Tua Tagovailoa. Instead, Teddy Bridgewater will play and while he is a capable backup, he is exactly that, a backup. His job will be easy due to the tremendous receivers he gets to throw to but the Jets actually have a lot of corner back talent. They should be able to contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for most of the game and that will force the Dolphins to run the ball. Which they cannot do. The Dolphins have the fourth least rushing yards amongst the 32 NFL teams and this is just a bad matchup for them. While Miami is the better team, this is a tough spot for them and we like the Jets to keep it close.

New York Jets +3.5

-114.94
@
Bovada

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

This Sunday Night Football matchup figures to be the game of the day. These are two playoff hopeful teams playing in the same division and it will be an exciting affair. Both squads are 2-2 and will be vying for a respectable 3-2 start to their season. Each team is amongst the worst passing defenses across the league and considering the offensive talent that will be on display this Sunday Night, the over is very appealing. The only concern for the over is that both teams like the run the ball and control the clock. However, we think there will be enough big plays to offset that and keep this game in line for the over. This will be a fun one and having the over is the value play in a battle that could truly go either way.

Over 48 Points

-109.89
@
Bovada

Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer

In the same game, we love Mark Andrews’ chances at a big bounce back game. After scoring three times in two weeks, Andrews had a down game last time out. But that was against the vaunted Bills defense. The Bengals have a substantially worse defense and they should struggle to contain the beast that is Mark Andrews. Andrews is too big for corner backs and too quick for linebackers. It takes a special type of defensive player to stop him and the Bengals don’t possess anyone like that. Andrews is Lamar Jackson’s favorite target near the goal line and considering we like the over, Andrews to score is a great bet.

Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer

+125
@
Bovada

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