Thompson v Holland UFC Fight Night betting picks – Dec 3, 2022

UFC Fight Night heads to Orlando, Florida, this Saturday for a compelling main event between Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland, a pair of dynamic strikers.

There was a time when Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson (16-6-1) looked like the best karate striker on the planet. His early professional MMA record stood at 13-1 and he operated in a plane that his opponents could not comprehend, let alone counter. Thompson then fought twice for the UFC welterweight belt against Tyrone Woodley, resulting in a draw and razor-thin loss — both fights he arguably won.

Since the second title shot in 2017, Wonderboy has fallen back to the pack with a 3-4 record. He has lost ground in the speed department and has looked susceptible to takedown pressure. This can attributed to age — he is now 39 — but also Thompson’s commitment to training with his father. He would have benefitted greatly from a change of camp to widen his skills, and has possibly paid the price for his family loyalty.

The other knock on Thompson is his niceness. He seems like a charming fellow who does not possess the fury to dominate opponents. He can also struggle to produce the necessary output to cement decision victories, a weakness that cost him both title bouts. That said, when engaged in a stand-up battle, Thompson still has the skills to finish many of his welterweight opponents, with recent wins over Vincent Luque, Geoff Neal, and Jorge Masvidal.

Kevin Holland (23-8-0) is a highly talented MMA fighter with the ability to produce some freakish manoeuvres. His finish from the bottom of legendary submission artist Ronaldo Souza was such a moment of blinding talent. Holland last entered the octagon against the unstoppable Khamzat Chimaev following the UFC 279 reshuffle and was submitted within the first encounter of the fight. It appeared Holland went to touch gloves at the opening bell, and Chimaev dived under the raised fist, secured the takedown, and quickly applied the D’Arce choke.

In the days following this loss Holland sent out cryptic messages about a possible retirement, but this was obviously just fun and games. Holland has a BJJ black belt and a kung fu background, so his skills overlap with those of Thompson, who holds a brown belt in BJJ combined with karate and kempo accreditations. Holland should have an advantage on the ground, and we can expect him to push for takedowns later in the rounds when Thompson is less sharp on his feet.

Thompson has more experience across five rounds, and it will be interesting should the bout extend beyond the third stanza. Holland enjoys a three-inch height advantage and a whopping six-inch reach differential. He is nine years younger than the veteran Thompson, but most betting sites opened this contest with coin-flip odds. Neither fighter has a history of being knocked out, so the most likely path to an early finish would be Holland via submission.

We are tipping the younger and longer Holland to prevail here. If you fancy longer odds than the -166.67 head-to-head price, back him to win via decision at +450 or submission at +600 with Bovada.

More sports betting picks