Thursday’s MLB American League betting picks – July 7, 2022

In Major League Baseball (MLB) this Thursday, Houston’s Justin Verlander hosts the Royals, Baltimore’s Jordan Lyles gets an unwelcome visit from the Angels, and Matt Chapman faces one of his favorite pitchers in Seattle’s Marco Gonzales. Here are the best bets on games featuring American League teams scheduled for July 7, starting at 2:10pm ET.

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Kansas City Royals (+245) @ Houston Astros (-295)

Justin Verlander is sure to stifle the Royals for at least seven innings. He’s 10-3 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He might be one of the top three pitchers in all of baseball at the age of 39. Kansas City is mostly unfamiliar with him, which is indicative of the youth on that team. Whit Merrifield has five hits in 21 at-bats, but just one went for extra bases.

As for the Royals projected starter, Kris Bubic, he’s 1-5 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. The only thing he has going for him against Houston is unfamiliarity. Most of the Astros have only seen him three times with limited success (3-for-16). The Royals also have the second-worst reliever ERA in MLB (4.76).

This is as sure a thing as can be. Take Houston in the first five innings, on the moneyline, and to win by two or more.

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Los Angeles Angels (-102.04) @ Baltimore Orioles (-120.48)

Michael Lorenzen is projected to start for Los Angeles in Baltimore on Thursday, and he’s been fine: 6-6, 4.94 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP. He will have unfamiliarity on his side, too. Only Rougned Odor has a single plate appearance against him. Luckily for Lorenzen, he won’t have to be great to get the win.

Jordan Lyles would love for his day not to feature the Los Angeles Angels. The Angles are 20-of-49 with 10 extra-base hits for a 1.222 OPS. Mike Trout is an amazing eight-for-18 with three doubles and two homers. Bet on him to collect up to four total bases on Thursday. He’s not the only Angel with multiple extra-base hits off Lyles, though. Shohei Ohtani has two doubles in eight at-bats.

The Angels’ relievers could play this game into a close one late, however. Their 4.04 ERA is 18th in baseball, while Baltimore surprisingly has the fourth-best ERA amongst relievers (3.31). Baltimore’s bullpen is just 13th-ranked in WHIP, though, and Los Angeles is right behind them.

Take Los Angeles in the first five innings and on the moneyline. Parlay that bet in the first five innings with Houston for +224 odds at Bovada.

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