UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya betting tips – 6/3/2021

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs Adesanya betting preview

Israel Adesanya (20-0-0) is already one of the biggest stars in the Ultimate Fighting Championship, but he is hoping to become an even bigger one by becoming a multi-division champion at UFC 259. To do so, he will need to defeat current UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz (27-8-0) in the main event this Saturday night in Las Vegas.

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Adesanya was supposed to be tested by the undefeated Paulo Costa at UFC 253 in September. Instead, he completely dismantled his competition, eventually securing a technical knockout win over Costa in the second round. The win was Adesanya’s second successful title defense and his ninth straight victory in the UFC since he joined the promotion in 2018. The New Zealander is looking to become the fifth UFC fighter ever to hold two divisional championships at once, and the first to ever hold the middleweight and light heavyweight titles at the same time.

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Blachowicz is 8-1 over his last nine fights, including a current four-fight winning streak with three knockout victories. The Polish fighter has earned five Performance of the Night awards and one Fight of the Night award over that nine-fight stretch despite closing as the underdog at UFC betting sites in all but one of them. He earned a second-round knockout win over Dominick Reyes to secure the Light Heavyweight Championship at UFC 253.

If this fight were taking place at a catchweight, there would be a lot less doubt that Adesanya could get the job done. And that’s no disrespect to Blachowicz, who is a very talented fighter; it’s just that Adesanya is on another tier. The issue for Adesanya, however, is that this fight is not one between two fighters of equal weight. Adesanya is not bulking up for this bout, which means he is moving up to a division that allows an extra 20 pounds at his normal size and weight.

This is an enormous undertaking, and Adesanya certainly has the talent to make it work. His speed and fluidity could keep him out of trouble and allow him to work his way to a decision victory as he has done many times in his career. But we just saw Blachowicz dismantle a dynamic fighter in Reyes who almost beat Jon Jones with his athleticism. Adesanya should be favored here, but this price is not factoring in the huge difference in weight and power nearly enough. We will take Blachowicz in his comfortable role as underdog.