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UFC 292 main card preview & betting picks – August 19, 2023

UFC 292: Sterling v O'Malley betting picks

UFC 292: Sterling vs O’Malley
Main card betting preview

Latest Odds & Fight Info

When Saturday, August 19 – main card from 10pm EDT
Where TD Garden – Boston, United States
Watch Live ESPN+ (US), BT Sport (UK), ESPN (AU), UFC Fight Pass

The main card for UFC 292 from TD Garden in Boston has been hit with some late withdrawals from big names, but it still packs a solid punch.

Unbeaten Irish star Ian Machado Garry will be looking to continue his rapid ascent when he tangles with veteran Neil Magny, Da’Mon Blackshear will be out to become the first UFC fighter to score two wins within seven days, and Pedro Munhoz steps up to replace the injured Henry Cejudo against Marlon Vera.

Read on for BP’s free UFC betting picks and fight predictions.

Aljamain Sterling v Sean O’Malley

UFC star Aljamain Sterling

Aljamain Sterling


Sean O'Malley UFC betting

Sean O’Malley

-277.78 at Bovada MMA records +215 at Bovada
23-3-0 MMA records 16-1-0
34 Age 28
5’7″ Height 5’11”
135lbs Weight 135lbs
71″ Reach 72″
USA Nationality USA

Does Sean O’Malley have what it takes to compete with the ultra-reliable Aljamain Sterling? See our Sterling vs O’Malley UFC 292 betting preview here.

Zhang Weili v Amanda Lemos

Weili Zhang UFC betting

Zhang Weili


Amanda Lemos

Amanda Lemos

-333.33 at Bovada UFC betting ods +252 at Bovada
23-3-0 MMA records 13-2-1
34 Age 36
5’4″ Height 5’4″
115lbs Weight 115lbs
63″ Reach 65″
China Nationality Brazil

Can Amanda Lemos spring a massive upset when she faces Chinese champ Zhang Weili? See our Zhang v Lemos UFC 292 betting preview here.

Neil Magny v Ian Machado Garry

Neil Magny

Neil Magny


Ian Machado Garry

Ian Machado Garry

+395 at Bovada UFC betting ods -555.56 at Bovada
28-11-0 MMA records 12-0-0
36 Age 25
6’3″ Height 6’3″
170lbs Weight 170lbs
80″ Reach 74.5″
USA Nationality Ireland

Neil Magny (28-11-0) steps in to replace the injured Geoff Neal and will be looking to blunt the challenge of a hungry young fighter on the rise. The 36-year-old veteran is a wily combatant who can prove frustrating for aggressive opponents by tying them up on the fence with exhausting grappling exchanges.

Magny appears to have an advantage on the mat in this matchup and can be expected to establish a long jab in the early moments before hunting for takedowns. He is 4-2 since 2021, and despite enduring many wars inside the cage, he can never be taken lightly.

Ian Machado Garry (12-0-0) gets his first taste of ranked opposition after compiling an impressive unbeaten run against less-credentialed opponents. The lanky Irishman has looked assured throughout his MMA career, and this contest presents a huge opportunity to elevate himself towards contender status.

Combining elements of boxing and judo, Garry throws heavy punches and can land dangerous high kicks – as witnessed in his recent first-round KO of Daniel Rodriguez, which landed a lucrative performance bonus. A similar performance here will establish Garry as the next Irish MMA star.

Ian Machado Garry by KO/TKO


Da’Mon Blackshear v Mario Bautista

Da'Mon Blackshear

Da’Mon Blackshear


Mario Bautista

Mario Bautista

+181 at Bovada UFC betting ods -227.27 at Bovada
14-5-0 MMA records 12-2-0
29 Age 30
5’10” Height 5’9″
136lbs Weight 136lbs
72″ Reach 72″
USA Nationality USA

Da’Mon Blackshear (14-5-0) lines up for his second UFC bout within seven days, stepping in to replace the injured Cody Garbrandt. The 29-year-old scored a speedy submission win over Jose Johnson and will enjoy a huge career boost if he can back that up with a similar performance.

He stands tall among the 135-pound division, has an excellent ground game with nine submission wins as a professional, and trains with the esteemed Jackson-Wink MMA team. He is slightly outclassed in this matchup but might be ready to be the first UFC fighter ever to score two wins within a week.

Mario Bautista (12-2-0) is 6-1 at UFC level since 2019, with recent wins over Guido Cannetti, Benito Lopez, and Brian Kelleher. The 30-year-old is also a submission specialist, with half of his 12 professional victories coming via that method, so we should see some high-quality grappling if this contest hits the mat.

As is often the case when similar skillsets collide, it might be the martial arts disciplines that determine the outcome of this clash. Bautista has a single KO to his credit, while Blackshear has never landed a knockout finish but appears to throw cleaner strikes.

Da’Mon Blackshear to win


Marlon Vera v Pedro Munhoz

Marlon Vera UFC betting

Marlon Vera


Pedro Munhoz

Pedro Munhoz

-200 at Bovada UFC betting ods +161 at Bovada
20-8-1 MMA records 20-7-0
30 Age 36
5’8″ Height 5’6″
136lbs Weight 136lbs
70.5″ Reach 64.5″
Ecuador Nationality Brazil

Marlon Vera (20-8-1) will be looking to bounce back from his decision loss to Cory Sandhagen after building a solid four-fight winning streak. The run of scalps included former champions Dominic Cruz and Frankie Edgar, as well as a tough competitor in Rob Font. The Ecuadorian has eight wins via knockout and eight via submission over a long and successful MMA career.

He will enjoy a decisive six-inch reach advantage here and looks very hard to beat. Vera can suffer a drop in aggression on occasion but should be motivated enough to produce sufficient volume after the disappointing split-decision loss in March 2023.

Pedro Munhoz (20-7-0) steps in to replace the injured Henry Cejudo and needs to find a win after enduring a rough few years. Since 2019, he is 2-4 with one no-contest, with all outcomes being decided by the judges. The 36-year-old is coming off a solid win over Chris Gutierrez and will be hopeful of reversing his poor fortune.

At his best, Munhoz lands volume strikes and looks for takedowns that can present submission opportunities. He has eight stoppage wins via that method and will not be afraid to follow Vera to the mat. That said, it is hard to look beyond the superior form and preparation of the No.6-ranked Vera.

Marlon Vera by decision


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