UFC 295 main card preview & betting picks – November 11, 2023

The UFC 295 card at Madison Square Garden in New York presents us with a lineup filled with intriguing narratives. Veteran Jessica Andrade has her back against the wall and will need to come out swinging when she faces elite grappler Mackenzie Dern, French kickboxing sensation Benoit Saint-Denis will face a stiff test when he clashes with the hard-hitting Matt Frevola, and Diego Lopes makes his anticipated return to the octagon.

Jiri Prochazka v Alex Pereira

Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira

Who will triumph in the UFC 295 main event? See our Jiri Prochazka vs Alex Pereira betting preview here.

Sergei Pavlovich v Tom Aspinall

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall

Two talented heavyweights will clash at Madison Square Garden this weekend. See our Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall betting preview here.

Jessica Andrade v Mackenzie Dern

Jessica Andrade vs Mackenzie Dern

Jessica Andrade (24-12-0) has hit the skids in recent months with three straight losses, all coming via stoppage. The Brazilian has not won a bout since hammering Lauren Murphy in January and might be on thin ice with her UFC contract if she cannot arrest the slide. The 32-year-old has been exposed in the grappling department with two of her 2023 losses coming via submission chokes. She has long relied on her prodigious strength to prevail, but this approach may struggle to overcome a technically proficient BJJ grappler like Mackenzie Dern.

Mackenzie Dern (13-3-0) possesses all the physical attributes required to win UFC gold, but small chinks remain in her MMA game. The 30-year-old can get outworked on the feet when takedowns are elusive, and all her UFC losses have come via the judges’ scorecard. She has never won a bout via knockout and lacks the standout power held by many of her strawweight rivals, including Andrade. Dern will need to take this fight to the mat where her advantage lies, or risk being outworked by a superior kickboxer here.

Matt Frevola v Benoit Saint-Denis

Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis

Matt Frevola (11-3-1) has strung together an impressive trio of performances since 2022 with three straight, round-one KO wins. The 33-year-old can get a little loose and wild during his exchanges but lands with heavy power when he gets off first. He faces a well-drilled opponent in New York and might get exposed if this contest enters the second and third rounds. If Frevola can bring the early heat, he can continue his winning run, otherwise, he may be picked apart by a taller and longer adversary.

Benoit Saint-Denis (12-1-0) is an exciting kickboxing prospect who has won all his professional fights to date via early stoppage. He appears ready to crack the lightweight rankings with another win and carries huge confidence after a wild TKO victory over Thiago Moises at his most recent appearance. The Frenchman is a dynamic striker with heavy hands, kicks, and elbows and this matchup may deliver a Fight of the Night contender. We are tipping Saint-Denis with some confidence based the strength of his all-round game and still untapped potential.

Diego Lopes v Pat Sabatini

Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini

Diego Lopes (22-6-0) earned a late UFC call-up in May and put in a huge but losing effort against the fancied Mosvar Evleov earning him the favour of fans and the matchmakers. He cemented this form at his next outing with a round-one submission win over Gavin Tucker. The Brazilian is as tough as nails and boasts a full MMA arsenal and should produce another bold showing against a challenging matchup.

Pat Sabatini (18-4-0) has fought at UFC level six times with a tidy 5-1 record to show for his work. Like Lopes, Sabatini is a skilled BJJ grappler with 11 professional wins coming via submission. When high-level grapplers stand opposite these skills can often negate each other, and it would be no surprise to see this contest remain standing for long periods. If the action does hit the mat, it is impossible to predict who might come out on top. Lopes might have a slight striking advantage, so we are leaning his way.

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