UFC Fight Night 208 main card picks & value bets – July 23, 2022

A very evenly matched middleweight bout between Jack Hermansson and Chris Curtis will serve as the co-main event of this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 208 in London, England. Here are the betting odds and our predictions for the five fights leading up to the evening’s main event of Curtis Blaydes vs Tom Aspinall.

Middleweight: Jack Hermansson (-113) vs Chris Curtis (-107)

Jack Hermansson (22-7-0) fell to 2-3 over his last five fights with a split decision loss to Sean Strickland in February. Hermansson’s losses have all come against respectable opponents in Strickland, Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier, but there’s still no denying that his stock has dropped significantly since he won four straight fights in 2018 and 2019.

Chris Curtis (29-8-0) has come out of nowhere to win his first three fights in the UFC, defeating Rodolfo Vieira as a small favorite last month after knocking out Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes as a big underdog in both of those fights. Curtis has now won eight straight fights and can no longer be shrugged off as a fluke. Hermansson’s talent and experience should in theory give him the edge here, but Curtis is in such better form at the moment that we simply can’t go against the hot hand in this one.

Lightweight: Paddy Pimblett (-259) vs Jordan Leavitt (+219)

England native Paddy Pimblett (18-3-0) is a massive fan favorite in his home country, so his inclusion on this card comes as no surprise. Pimblett has won each of his last four fights in the first round with two submission wins and two knockout wins, and both of his UFC victories came with a Performance of the Night bonus. Jordan Leavitt (10-1-0) has won two straight fights and is 3-1 in the UFC, so he isn’t a total slouch; but he also isn’t the guy to snap Pimblett’s winning streak in front of a red-hot crowd.

Light Heavyweight: Nikita Krylov (-195) vs Alexander Gustafsson (+170)

Nikita Krylov (27-9-0) entered his second stint in the UFC on the heels of a 4-0-0 winning streak with three straight knockouts, but he’s gone just 2-4-0 over his last six fights with two straight losses. Alexander Gustafsson (18-7-0) is in even worse recent form with three straight losses and a 3-6-0 record over his last nine fights. Neither of these fighters can be trusted to get the job done, so by default Gustafsson is the much more favorable choice at these betting odds in a fight that really does feel like it could go either way.

Women’s Flyweight: Molly McCann (-425) vs Hannah Goldy (+325)

In another fight scheduled for the delight of the home crowd in London, England native Molly McCann (12-4-0) is the biggest favorite on the main card taking on American Hannah Goldy (6-2-0). McCann has won two fights in a row while Goldy is off to a 1-2-0 start in the UFC with her only win coming against a very weak opponent in Emily Whitmire. This one figures to be a pretty easy one for the more experienced and talented fighter.

Light Heavyweight: Paul Craig (+126) vs Volkan Oezdemir (-146)

Paul Craig (16-4-1) is undefeated over his last six bouts with a 5-0-1 record, scoring four Performance of the Night bonuses during that stretch with all five of those wins coming by stoppage. Volkan Oezdemir (17-6-0) is only 2-5-0 over his last seven fights, but he’s still the favorite in this bout due to the fact that his fights have come against much stiffer competition. Oezdemir would have made for a nice upset pick had the oddsmakers overreacted to his recent losses, but there’s no value on him here as a favorite against a very solid and dangerous fighter in Craig, who we’ll happily take as a dog here.

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