UFC Fight Night 74: Holloway vs. Oliveira betting predictions

Date: Sunday, August 23rd 2015 at 6:00pm ET (Prelims) / 9:00pm ET (Main Card)

Venue: SaskTel Centre in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

TV: Fox Sports 1 (Main Card) or Fox Sports 2 and UFC Fight Pass (Prelims)

AFTER a rare weekend off, the UFC is back this weekend as Fight Night 74 kicks off at the SaskTel Centre in Saskatoon.

BettingPLanet.com is excited about the main event, but the rest of the fight card features a bunch of unranked guys in the smaller divisions.

Let’s take a look at the betting markets in the main event between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira.

Oliveira vs. Holloway fight odds

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Money Line: Oliveira (+200) vs. Holloway (-240)
Round Total: Over 1.5 Rounds (-225) vs. Under 1.5 Rounds (+185)
Win By Submission: Oliveira (+315) vs. Holloway (+1133)
Win by TKO/KO: Oliveira (+1485) vs. Holloway (+110)

The bookmakers are expecting Holloway to win this fight by knockout – hence his low price in the TKO/KO market. The round total is interesting as well – I’m surprised 5Dimes has set the total at 1.5 rounds.

Stats pack

We now know how the markets are shaping up – let’s look at how these two stack up against each other.

Max Holloway

Record: 13-3

Age: 23

Height: 5’11”

Reach: 69”

Stance: Orthodox

Stoppage Victories: 7 (5 TKO/KO & 2 Submissions)

Stoppage Losses: 1 (1 Submission)

Charles Oliveira

Record: 20-4-1

Age: 25

Height: 5’10”

Reach: 74”

Stance: Orthodox

Stoppage Victories: 18 (6 TKO/KO & 12 Submissions)

Stoppage Losses: 3 (2 TKO/KO & 1 Submission)

Both fighters are about the same height, but Oliveira will have a 5” reach advantage. Holloway wins by getting inside and striking often, which will be tough in this fight. Oliveira also has great wrestling and has an edge in that department.

Best Bets for Oliveira vs. Holloway

Oliveira and Holloway are both featherweights at the top of their game, plus both fighters are young.

Neither fighter has entered their prime yet and Oliveira is already ranked 7th in the division, while Holloway is ranked 5th in the division at just 23 years old. I believe Holloway has a great chance at being the next featherweight champion.

It may take awhile to dethrone Conor McGregor, but Holloway has years left in the tank.

Holloway is on a 6-fight win streak with wins against Chope, Fili, Collard, Corassani, Miller and Swanson. His most recent win over Swanson was great – Holloway dominated the fight and locked in a submission in the final round.

“Blessed” hasn’t lost since he was defeated twice in 2013 by McGregor and Bermudez.

Oliveira is coming into his own, but it remains to be seen if he can hang with the big boys. “Do Bronx” has won four in a row against Ogle, Hioki, Stephens and Lentz, but now he’s fighting a top 5 opponent in the division.

The Brazilian had trouble when he stepped up in competition last time. Prior to his current 4-fight win streak – Oliveira had lost two fights in a row against Swanson and Edgar. We’ll see how much he has grown since those losses.

Oliveira was knocked out by Swanson and he has to watch out for Holloway’s power.

Holloway is going to come in and look to push the pace with his striking. Holloway lands an average 5.64 SLpM (41% Accuracy) and absorbs 3.78 SLpM (69% Defense). He has some of the best striking in the weight class.

However, he has no ground game. He has only landed one takedown in his UFC career.

The Brazilian is much better at mixing things up. He has landed nine takedowns during his current win streak and three of his wins have come via submission. Oliveira knows he has to takedown Holloway to win this fight.

Oliveira’s reach advantage will serve him well early while he sets up TD’s. He has 50% striking accuracy and a great jab, but his bread and butter is his submission game. This fight is tough to predict a winner in.

Best Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds (-225) at 5Dimes.eu

I love the O1.5 rounds, even with the high price. Oliveira has gone O1.5 rounds in his last five fights, while Holloway has gone O1.5 rounds in four of his last five fights. At -225 I believe we’re getting great value.

Both fighters can finish, but neither are going to be stopped in the first round.

Best Bet: Fight Goes to Decision (+240) at 5Dimes.eu

I’ll also have a 1/2 unit on the fight going to decision at +240 odds. Most of the recent fights featuring these guys have gone into the third round or decision. I know they can both finish, but neither fighter is prone to getting stopped.

UFC Fight Night 74 parlay picks

Like always – I’ll be sharing my best bets on the entire fight card for parlays this weekend.

Parlay: Holloway/Oliveira O1.5 + Silva + Aubin-Mercier (+214) at Bovada.lv

Let’s not get greedy – this three-leg parlay pays over 2/1 odds and what’s not to like?

Erick Silva (18-5) is looking to win his third fight in a row by submission since being KO’ed by Brown. He’s in the cage against Neil Magny (15-4) who just lost by submission at UFC 190 earlier this month against Maia.

Magny is making some decent money this month, but Silva will have little problem getting the win. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (6-1) is 2-1 in the UFC. He lost his debut to Laprise, but has two consecutive wins against Lindsey and Michaud.

Aubin-Mercier is fighting Tony Sims (12-2). Sims won his UFC debut against Montgomery by KO in the opening round, but this is a much tougher fight. Sims has power, but Aubin-Mercier is a big dude and has a great ground game.

Betting lines for UFC Fight Night 74

Max Holloway (-240) vs. Charles Oliveira (+200)
Erick Silva (-170) vs. Neil Magny (+150)
Josh Burkman (-135) vs. Patrick Cote (+115)
Chad Laprise (-335) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (+275)
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-240) vs. Tony Sims (+200)
Maryna Moroz (-185) vs. Valerie Letourneau (+160)
Misha Cirkunov (-450) vs. Daniel Jolly (+360)
Felipe Arantes (-200) vs. Yves Jabouin (+170)
Marcos Rogerio De Lima (-145) vs. Nikita Krylov (+125)
Frankie Perez (-135) vs. Sam Stout (+115)
Chris Beal (-165) vs. Chris Kelades (+145)
Elias Silverio (-260) vs. Shane Campbell (+220)