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UFC Fight Night main card preview & picks – Strickland v Magomedov

UFC Fight Night betting picks

UFC Fight Night: Strickland v Magomedov

Latest Odds & Fight Info

Main Event odds Strickland -156.25 at Bovada | Magomedov +130 at Bovada
When Saturday, July 1 – main card from 4pm PDT
Where UFC APEX – Las Vegas, United States
Watch Live ESPN+ (US), BT Sport (UK), ESPN (AU), UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov from the Apex in Las Vegas features some exciting young talent including the unbeaten Michael Morales and surging Ismael Bonfim. Fight fans will also be keen to witness the latest appearance of dynamic women’s flyweight Melissa Gatto. Read on for BP’s UFC betting tips and fight analyses.

Damir Ismagulov v Grant Dawson

Damir Ismagulov


Grant Dawson

-128.21 at Bovada UFC betting odds +108 at Bovada
24-2-0 MMA records 19-1-1
32 Age 29
5’10” Height 5’10”
155lbs Weight 155lbs
70″ Reach 72″
Russia Nationality USA
Atyrau, Kazakhstan Fighting out of Coconut Creek, Florida

Damir Ismagulov (24-2-0) was beaten in his last bout, ending an 18-fight win streak that stretched back to 2015. The loss was a decision result to Arman Tsarukyan – an impressive fellow Russian with a solid all round MMA game. Ismagulov’s weakness is entrusting his fate to the hands of the judges and has not scored a true finish since 2017. His early career is dotted with knockouts against sub-standard opposition while in the M-1 Challenge, a Russian fighting league, but he has become overly cautious as of late.

Grant Dawson (19-1-1) is unbeaten in 11 bouts and one of the UFC’s most prolific submission artists. The American has recorded 13 wins via tap-out, and in contrast to Ismagulov, has only faced the judges twice throughout his career. Dawson will be looking to take this bout to the mat, but this may only be possible after enjoying initial stand-up success. His only career loss occurred in 2015 when stopped via TKO within the opening seconds of the fight.

Grant Dawson to win


Michael Morales v Max Griffin

Michael Morales


Max Griffin

-277.78 at Bovada UFC betting odds +216 at Bovada
14-0-0 MMA records 19-9-0
24 Age 37
6’0″ Height 5’11”
170lbs Weight 170lbs
79″ Reach 76″
Colombia Nationality USA
Tijuana, Mexico Fighting out of Sacramento, California

Michael Morales (14-0-0) is a tall, strapping, unbeaten fighter on an upward curve. The Ecuadorian entered the UFC via Dana White’s Contender Series and has won two subsequent bouts with impressive knockout finishes. The 23-year-old will appreciate a height and reach advantage here and is strongly favoured to continue his winning run over the more experienced Griffin.

Max Griffin (19-9-0) has assembled a return to form since hitting a career rough patch of 1-4 from 2018 to 2020. The American has gone 4-1 since including wins over big names in Tim Means and Carlos Condit. He is a cardio machine who improves in the latter rounds and the 37-year-old will need to survive the opening minutes and wear down his younger and fresher opponent here. He has knockout power in his hands but might be wise to avoid standing toe-to-toe and risking getting stopped by a proven finisher.

Max Griffin to win


Melissa Gatto v Ariane Lipski

Melissa Gatto


Ariane Lipski

-227.27 at Bovada UFC betting odds +181 at Bovada
8-1-2 MMA records 15-8-0
27 Age 29
5’5″ Height 5’6″
125lbs Weight 125lbs
69″ Reach 67″
Brazil Nationality Brazil
Toledo, Parana Fighting out of Curitiba, Parana

Melissa Gatto (8-1-2) is an exciting prospect in the women’s flyweight division. The Brazilian has recorded two wins and a close loss under the UFC banner courtesy of a strong ground game and solid striking skills. Gatto has two wins via knockout to her credit and four via submission. Her kicks land with real venom and Gatto appears blessed with significant potential. She appears one of the stronger plays on this card.

Ariane Lipski (15-8-0) has looked vulnerable to heavy shots in recent times having been finished thrice out of her last five appearances. She has two wins during this span, both by decision, but will be wise to fight at long range and out of harm’s way. Lipski is also accomplished on the mat with three wins via submission and this contest will get interesting if either fighter lands a takedown.

Melissa Gatto to win


Ismael Bonfim v Benoit Saint-Denis

Ismael Bonfim


Benoit Saint-Denis

-322.58 at Bovada UFC betting odds +246 at Bovada
19-3-0 MMA records 10-1-0
27 Age 27
5’8″ Height 5’11”
156lbs Weight 156lbs
71″ Reach 73″
Brazil Nationality France
Brasilia, Federal District Fighting out of Paris, Île-de-France

Ismael Bonfim (19-3-0) enters this bout on a thirteen-fight win streak. His only career losses have come via rear naked choke while fighting on Brazilian MMA promotions early in his professional career. He made his UFC debut in February 2023 and scored a second round flying knee knockout that sent opponent Terrance McKinney into another dimension. Bonfim will need to effectively close the distance here against a taller and longer opponent but appears a ready-made mixed martial artist.

Benoit Saint-Denis (10-1-0) has fought thrice at UFC level with a 2-1 return on his efforts. The loss was a close decision result on his debut, but the Frenchman quickly turned it around with a pair of second round stoppage victories. Saint-Denis has never faced the judges with eight submissions and two knockouts across an impressive professional run. This match-up might deliver a Fight of the Night spectacle, and we found it very difficult to separate these athletes.

Benoit Saint-Denis to win


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