UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez v Lemos betting picks – Nov 5, 2022

UFC Fight Night returns to Vegas this Saturday night with a headliner between Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos that should be a tactical chess match.

Marina Rodriguez (16-1-2) is a tough Brazilian MMA fighter with an impressive record. The only loss of her lengthy career came against current strawweight champ Carla Esparza, and that was a narrow split-decision result, so she could conceivably be unbeaten at this point. Rodriguez is currently ranked third in her stacked division and will be hoping for a crack at the belt in 2023.

This bout is a dangerous assignment for Rodriguez because she is fighting a lower-ranked opponent. A win will not improve her standing, unless it is spectacular, and a loss will potentially see her slide in the ratings. But fighters must remain active to earn a living, and often accept such contests for to meet short-term goals.

Rodriguez is adept both on the feet and on the mat, with strong BJJ and kickboxing pedigrees. Her record contains mostly decision victories, as she is a measured and careful fighter who avoids standing in the pocket where damage can occur. Decision victories are also contingent on high-quality coaching and corner advice, as a fighter is often unaware of how a bout might look to an outsider like a judge due to the fog of war. Her recent win streak includes victories over high-class opponents in Xan Xiaonan, Mackenzie Dern, and Michelle Waterson.

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Amanda Lemos (12-2-1) is the seventh-ranked women’s strawweight but boasts a similar record to her opponent. Lemos has only tasted defeat twice, most recently to Jessica Andrade via standing arm triangle choke in April 2022, and back in 2017 to Leslie Smith via knockout. Lemos caught the talented Michelle Waterson in a guillotine choke in her latest trip to the cage in a result that earned her a Performance of the Night bonus.

Lemos is also a versatile mixed martial artist with solid skills in all departments. She will have two-inch height disadvantage here, so will be looking to close the distance and get a hold of Rodriguez on the inside. Lemos is also Brazilian, so the women will have plenty of knowledge of each other and this promises to be a highly tactical affair. The superior gameplan might decide the winner.

Although Rodriguez appears short in the betting markets, she does appeal as the likely winner, and we are tipping her at -217.39 with Bovada. For those hunting additional value, we expect this fight to go the distance, with such equal skillsets cancelling out any big advantage either way, so over 4.5 rounds might be worth consideration.