UFC Fight Night | Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad betting picks

Two of the top welterweights in the world collide this Saturday night as Vicente Luque takes on Belal Muhammad in the main event of UFC Fight Night 206. These two fighters met once before at UFC 205 back in 2016 when Luque won the fight with a first-round knockout.

Welterweight: Vicente Luque vs Belal Muhammad

Vicente Luque (21-7-1) will be making his long-overdue main event debut on Saturday. Luque is 10-1 over his last 11 fights with nine finishes over that stretch, knocking out six of his opponents and submitting three of them with a D’Arce choke hold. In his last eight fights, Luque has earned a Fight of the Night bonus four times and a Performance of the Night bonus twice. He has 11 knockout wins and eight submission wins to date.

Belal Muhammad (20-3-0) has improved quite a bit since his last fight with Luque. Muhammad is 10-1 over his last 11 fights since falling to 1-2 in the UFC with his last loss to Luque. That stretch includes a current six-fight winning streak with his most recent win coming over Stephen Thompson back in December. Muhammad’s loss to Luque marks the only time in his career that he has ever been stopped, with his other two career losses coming by decision.

This is an intriguing matchup between two fighters with very different styles. Luque is always going for the kill but when striking standing up and when grappling on the mat. Muhammad has won nine of his last 10 fights by decision, generally taking down his opponent and grinding out victories with solid ground control.

There is a path to victory for Muhammad here if he can do exactly that; take control and keep it throughout the fight. We might be more enthusiastic about his chances of scoring an upset if this were a three-round fight. But in a five round fight, Muhammad will need to manage to avoid trouble against one of the division’s best finishers for 25 minutes. That just feels like too tall of an order, especially if he gets hurt and thrown off of his game in the early rounds.

Muhammad needs this fight to go according to his plan to win, while Luque has multiple paths to victory thanks to his excellent striking and submission work. This should be a better and longer fight than the last one between these two fighters was, but in the end we expect the same result.

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