UFC Mexico betting preview & fight picks | March 29, 2025

The main card for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg in Mexico City this Saturday night is a celebration of local fighting talent. Highlights include a lightweight bout between Manuel Torres and Drew Dober, a middleweight bout between veteran Kelvin Gastelum and emerging prospect Joe Pyfer, and Raul Rosas Jr squaring off against Vince Morales. Read on for BettingSite’s fight previews and top tips.

Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg

Former flyweight champion Brandon Moreno will return to the octagon when hosting recent challenger Steve Erceg in Sunday’s main event. Moreno is one of the most decorated athletes at 125 pounds and will enjoy a strong hometown advantage as he attempts to fend off the plucky Aussie. Read our full Moreno vs Erceg preview here.

Manuel Torres vs Drew Dober

Manuel Torres (15-3-0) has fought four times in the UFC, with each bout concluding in the opening round. The 30-year-old was progressing nicely with three straight wins until a wild exchange against Ignacio Bahamondes in September sent him to canvas. Torres is a scary proposition at 155 pounds, combining relentless forward pressure with accurate strikes and a dangerous ground game, and he should find a willing dance partner in Mexico.

Drew Dober (27-14-0) boasts 14 knockout wins as a professional but has lost a yard in recent times. He has dropped three of his last four fights, including a TKO defeat to Jean Silva in July last year when the ringside doctor was forced to intervene. The American’s chin is bound to be tested again, although he does carry slight favouritism heading into this evenly poised contest.

Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer

Kelvin Gastelum (19-9-0) struggled with weight issues and bounced between divisions before challenging for the interim middleweight belt in 2019, losing a five-round war to Israel Adesanya. The 33-year-old’s form has been inconsistent since that bout, with three wins and five losses. Gastelum is coming off a solid decision victory over Daniel Rodriguez in 2024 but is expected to struggle against a younger and hungrier opponent in Mexico.

Joe Pyfer (13-3-0) is a devastating puncher on his day, and nine of his 13 professional wins have come via knockout. This reliance on power can come at a cost, however, and he tired badly in his loss to Jack Hermansson after the early stoppage was not forthcoming. The American bounced back to knock out Marc-Andre Barriault within two minutes in June, and a similar strategy should yield another early finish.

Raul Rosas Jr vs Vince Morales

Raul Rosas Jr (10-1-0) was on his way to becoming the youngest champion in UFC history before Christian Rodriguez manhandled him over 15 minutes in 2023. This slowed his trajectory, but the 20-year-old has since rattled off three straight wins to prove his prodigious talent. Another win should propel Rosas toward a top-15 ranking, where his strong wrestling pedigree will prove invaluable.

Vince Morales (16-9-0) was cut from the UFC roster in 2022 following a poor run of results, only to rejoin in September last year. The 34-year-old is 0-2 on this latest stint and will need to find significant improvement to hold onto his contract. Morales lacks finishing power and holds a losing record with the judges, and while he does have five submission wins, that skill is unlikely to be of great value against such a strong wrestler and grappler.

David Martinez vs Saimon Oliveira

David Martinez (11-1-0) makes his UFC debut after grinding out a tough decision victory on Dana White’s Contender Series in October. The 26-year-old built a strong record on the regional circuit, with his only defeat coming via split decision back in 2021. A solid striker with high output, Martinez is expected to make the grade and has drawn a favourable matchup in Mexico.

Saimon Oliveira (18-5-0) has dropped his last two UFC bouts, including a devastating stoppage loss to Daniel Marcos following a series of heavy body shots. The 33-year-old is yet to taste UFC success and will need to lift his volume and protect his ribs to overcome this statistic. The Brazilian does possess a slick ground game but might be exposed if this bout does not find the mat during early exchanges.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas

Ronaldo Rodriguez (18-2-0) holds a perfect 2-0 UFC record and looks a ready-made addition to the flyweight ranks. The 25-year-old is still improving but could not have been more impressive on debut, choking out Denys Bondar one year ago. This effort was followed by a tough decision victory over Ode Osbourne, and the Mexican appears to have all the tools necessary to continue his ascent in front of a partisan crowd.

Kevin Borjas (9-3-1) has dropped his last two UFC bouts, including a TKO loss to Alessandro Costa in May last year. The 27-year-old has not been rushed back into action and should be fired up for this return. He appears a hard-working MMA practitioner but may be lacking some of the dynamism of his rival flyweights. If he finds his range, however, Borjas can present danger courtesy of lengthy exchanges.

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