UFC: Moreno v Erceg betting predictions & preview | March 29

Brandon Moreno returns to action this Saturday night in Mexico City, headlining UFC Fight Night at Arena CDMX against rising Aussie contender Steve Erceg in what shapes up as a pivotal flyweight bout with major title implications. Read on for a full fight breakdown and free UFC betting picks.

Brandon Moreno

• MMA Record 22-8-2
• Age 31
• Height 5’7”
• Weight 125lbs
• Reach 70″
• Nationality Mexico

Steve Erceg

• MMA Record 12-3-0
• Age 29
• Height 5’8”
• Weight 125lbs
• Reach 68″
• Nationality Australia

Brandon Moreno (22-8-2), the former UFC flyweight champion, has seen it all in the 125-pound division. A veteran of four brutal fights with Deiveson Figueiredo, he has worn gold three separate times and remains one of the most complete fighters in the sport. After dropping the title to Alexandre Pantoja in a razor-thin split decision last year, the Mexican bounced back impressively with a dominant win over Amir Albazi. That five-round dismantling of a fellow contender sent a message to the rest of the division—Moreno is still a serious problem.

He enters this weekend’s main event as the -238.1 favorite with the top online sportsbooks, and the betting momentum continues to swing in his direction. With his elite fight IQ, sharp boxing, slick footwork and a dangerous submission game, Moreno has few weaknesses. He’s never been finished in 32 pro fights, and he thrives under pressure—especially in front of a raucous home crowd. This will be his third time headlining in Mexico, and with the entire arena behind him, it’s hard to imagine him faltering.

Steve Erceg (12-3-0), this is both a huge opportunity and a steep challenge. The Perth native was the feel-good story of 2024 when he came within a round of dethroning Pantoja in Rio. His stock rose despite the loss, but that momentum came crashing down in his next fight when he was brutally knocked out by Kai Kara-France in the opening round. That defeat raised serious questions about his durability at the elite level.

Erceg is technically sound and composed under fire, with a strong jab and well-rounded skill set, but he’ll need to be perfect to overcome Moreno in this setting. Fighting in Mexico City at altitude is notoriously tough, and coming off a knockout loss doesn’t help. He’s the +190 underdog at Nags.bet and will need to dig deep—mentally and physically—to pull off what would be a massive betting upset.

The most likely outcome is Moreno turning the screws over time. His ability to string together damage and mix in grappling makes him difficult to read, and if Erceg starts to fade, the Mexican won’t hesitate to go for the finish. With the energy of a home crowd behind him, Moreno is expected to push the pace, break Erceg down, and potentially close the show inside the distance.

Moreno v Erceg UFC Fight Night predictions

The most likely outcome is Moreno turning the screws over time. His ability to string together damage and mix in grappling makes him difficult to read, and if Erceg starts to fade, the Mexican won’t hesitate to go for the finish. With the energy of a home crowd behind him, Moreno is expected to push the pace, break Erceg down, and potentially close the show inside the distance.

Expect the former champ to feed off the crowd and deliver another clinical performance as he continues his march back to the title.

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