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UFC Vegas 16 Prelim Betting Predictions

UFC betting tips for January 23/1

UFC Vegas 16: Hermansson vs Vettori

Latest Odds & Fight Info

Main Event odds Hermansson +114 at BetOnline | Vettori -140.85 at BetOnline
When Saturday, December 5 – main card from 7pm PST
Where UFC APEX – Las Vegas, Nevada
Watch Live ESPN+ (US), BT Sport (UK), ESPN (AU), UFC Fight Pass, UFC.com

UFC Vegas 16: Preliminary Card Preview

The UFC Vegas 16 preliminary card is loaded with undefeated young fighters looking to make an impact and veterans looking to show they still have something to prove. Here’s a look at this Saturday’s early action.

Lightweight: Gabriel Benítez (-222.22) vs. Justin Jaynes (+185)

Gabriel Benitez (21-8-0) is looking to snap a two-fight losing streak. He is favored to do just that against Justin Jaynes (16-5-0), who had a five-fight winning streak snapped with a loss in his second UFC fight to Gavin Tucker.

That loss exposed some holes in Jaynes’ game. He had won his previous five fights in the first round; when stretched beyond the first round by Tucker, he showed serious conditioning issues. Benitez is probably good enough to weather the early storm and take over the fight after Jaynes gasses out, but at +185, this underdog is live to an early knockout win.

Justin Jaynes by Knockout

+300
@
BetOnline

Bantamweight: Louis Smolka (-135.14) vs. Jose Alberto Quinonez (+115)

Louis Smolka (16-7-0) is 2-2 in his second stint with the UFC after leaving the promotion for a year in 2018 coming off of four straight losses in 2016 and 2017. Jose Alberto Quinonez (8-4-0) is 5-2 over his last seven UFC fights, but has lost two of his last three including a first-round knockout loss to Sean O’Malley in his last bout in March.

Quinonez has fared well against weak competition but was dominated in tougher fights against O’Malley and Nathaniel Wood. Smolka will be a good litmus test for Quinonez, who should have the striking edge but be vulnerable on the ground. It’s close, but we see Smolka finding a window to take this one with a submission win over 15 minutes of action.

Louis Smolka by Submission

+333
@
BetOnline

Lightweight: Jordan Leavitt (-416.67) vs. Matt Wiman (+325)

Jordan Leavitt (7-0-0) will make his UFC debut in this one after compiling an undefeated 7-0 record as a professional to date. Matt Wiman (16-9-0) is a 37-year-old UFC veteran with two straight losses. This would have been a different fight in Wiman’s prime, but in this spot there isn’t much to indicate that Wiman will be able to overcome Leavitt’s four-inch reach advantage or his takedown attempts. Leavitt gets the easy win here.

Jordan Leavitt by Submission

+125
@
BetOnline

Flyweight: Jimmy Flick (-169.49) vs. Cody Durden (+145)

Jimmy Flick (15-5-0) enters the UFC this Saturday on a three fight winning streak and has earned 13 of his 15 professional wins by way of submission. Cody Durden (11-2-1) settled for a draw in his UFC debut in August after entering the promotion on a seven-fight winning streak. This should be a fun bout between two fighters comfortable with taking the fight to the mat. In the end, Flick has more submissions and techniques in his bag of tricks, and that should eventually lead to the win.

Jimmy Flick by Submission

+137
@
BetOnline

Featherweight: Ilia Topuria (-250) vs. Damon Jackson (+210)

Ilia Topuria (9-0-0) remained undefeated with a decision win over Youssef Zalal in his UFC debut in October. In his second UFC bout, he takes on Damon Jackson (18-3-1), who is 7-1 over his last eight fights including a win against Mirsad Bektic in his UFC debut in September. Both of these fighters are talented on the mat and Topuria is the better striker, so it makes sense that he’s the favorite in this spot. But there’s a lot of value in Jackson here as a +210 underdog as all it takes is a timely submission move to steal a win.

Damon Jackson by Submission

+600
@
BetOnline

Heavyweight: Gian Villante (-204.08) vs. Jake Collier (+175)

The card opens with a heavyweight slugfest between Gian Villante (17-12-0) and Jake Collier (11-5-0). Villante is just 2-5 over his last seven fights and Collier is 3-4 over his last seven. Both of these fighters are moving up in weight class and Villante has the power edge due to being naturally bigger, but neither fighter is going to generate much confidence from bettors here.

Gian Villante by Knockout

+160
@
BetOnline
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