UFC Vegas 21 main card tips, odds & value bets – March 13, 2021

UFC Vegas 21 main card preview

This Saturday’s main card in Las Vegas features a whopping six fights leading up to the main event between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad. With five of those six fights featuring a favorite going off at longer odds than -200, this should be a highly competitive card.

Light Heavyweight: Misha Cirkunov (-125) vs Ryan Spann (+105)

Misha Cirkunov (15-5-0) kicked off his UFC career with a 4-0 record before stepping up in competition and losing three of his next four fights by way of knockout. Cirkunov defeated Jimmy Crute in his last fight in September and has earned each of his last five wins by submission. Ryan Spann (18-6-0) had an eight-fight winning streak snapped in his last bout with a knockout loss to Johnny Walker.

Some 12 of Cirkunov’s last 14 fights (and each of his last six fights) have not made it out of the first round. Eight of Spann’s last 11 fights have ended in the first round as well. This should be a thrilling bout between two fighters who will go for the kill early and often. It will end quickly via a Cirkunov submission or a Spann knockout; we lean towards the former.

Heavyweight: Ben Rothwell (-110) vs Philipe Lins (-110)

Two veteran heavyweights clash in this interesting matchup between Ben Rothwell (38-13-0) and Philipe Lins (14-5). Lins has lost each of his last two fights and Rothwell has lost four of his last six. Considering that Lins is 0-2 in the UFC and has looked fairly lost in the octagon, the experienced Rothwell seems worth a go at pick’em odds.

Featherweight: Dan Ige (-130) vs Gavin Tucker (+110)

Dan Ige (14-3-0) had a six-fight winning streak snapped in his loss to Calvin Kattar in July, while Gavin Tucker (13-1-0) is on a three-fight winning streak since picking up his first loss back in 2017. This is a big step up in competition for Tucker, but we think he is up to the task. A win over Ige would send the 34-year-old surging up the featherweight rankings.

Women’s Strawweight: Angela Hill (-400) vs Ashley Yoder (+330)

This fight was originally scheduled for UFC Vegas 20 but was postponed after one of Ashley Yoder’s cornermen tested positive for COVID-19. Nothing has changed; Angela Hill (12-9-0) has been in excellent form of late and defeated Yoder (8-6-0) when these two clashed in 2017. All signs point to a comfortable win for Hill, as the odds at UFC bookmakers suggest.

Flyweight: Manel Kape (-145) vs Matheus Nicolau (+125)

Manel Kape (15-5-0) will be looking to bounce back from a loss in his UFC debut last month, while Matheus Nicolau (15-2-1) will be hoping to make the most of a second stint in the promotion after being cut in 2019. Six of Kape’s last seven wins have come by way of knockout, so look for him to get into the UFC win column with another KO here.

Middleweight: Darren Stewart (-183) vs Eryk Anders (+158)

Darren Stewart (12-6-0) is an underwhelming 5-5 in the UFC, but Eryk Anders (13-5-0) has been even worse with a 3-5 record in his last eight UFC bouts. Stewart’s recent form makes him the straight-up pick, though it isn’t a thrilling bet at these odds.