UFC Vegas 22 prelim tips, odds & value bets – Saturday 20/3/2021

UFC Vegas 22 prelim card preview

Two of the top 15 women’s bantamweights headline the prelim card at UFC Vegas 22: Brunson vs Holland. Along with Marion Reneau and Macy Chiasson, there are five other fights that will hope to deliver as many fireworks as the prelims did last weekend. Let’s dive into our UFC betting picks for Saturday’s undercard.

Flyweight: Bruno Silva (+130) vs JP Buys (-150)

Our first prelim fight of the evening features flyweights Bruno Silva (10-5-2, 1 No Contest, 0-2 UFC) and JP Buys (9-2-0, 0-0 UFC). Buys is making his UFC debut and Silva is looking to notch his first UFC win since having a no contest and 2 straight losses. Silva’s most recent fight was an October 2020 unanimous decision loss to Tagir Ulanbekov of Eagles MMA. Buys’s most recent fight was a November 2020 submission victory over Jacob Silva on Dana White’s Contender Series. Silva is 3-1 by KO/TKO, 3-1 by submission, and 4-3-2 by decision in his career. Buys is 3-1 by KO/TKO, 5-1 by submission, and 1-0 by decision in his career. We like Buys to win in his debut, and if the trend follows suit, inside the distance is the best bet. He has only had one of his 11 professional fights go to decision. Also take a look at the fight not going the distance in either fighter’s favor.

Women’s Bantamweight: Julia Avila (-375) vs Julija Stoliarenko (+300)

Our second prelim fight of the night is putting two bantamweights to the test in #15 women’s bantamweight Julia Avila (8-2-0, 2-1 UFC) and Julija Stoliarenko (9-5-1, 0-1 UFC). Both fighters are looking to get back on the right track and come back from losses. Avila’s last bout was in September 2020 against Sijara Eubanks, where she lost by unanimous decision. Stoliarenko last fought in August of 2020, where she made her UFC debut and lost to Yana Kunitskaya via unanimous decision. Avila is 4-1 by KO/TKO, 1-0 by submission, and 3-1 by decision in her career. Stoliarenko is 0-2 by KO/TKO, 8-0 by submission, and 1-3-1 by decision in her career. We believe the numbers show Avila’s best route to victory is a win by decision, as Stoiliarenko has not been finished since 2015. We do, however, also like a submission victory for Stoliarenko.

Bantamweight: Montel Jackson (-750) vs Jesse Strader (+550)

Our third prelim fight is a bantamweight bout featuring Montel Jackson (9-2-0, 3-2 UFC) and Jesse Strader (5-1-0, 0-0 UFC). This will be Jesse Strader’s UFC debut, and according to media outlets, he received this fight on less than two week’s notice. This may be factoring along with his lack of significant fight history in his heavy underdog status against Jackson, who is a big favorite despite coming off a July 2020 unanimous decision loss to Brett Johns. Strader’s last fight was an August 2019 KO/TKO victory over Isaiah Batin-Gonzalez under the Combate Americas promotion, which had two fighters make debuts this past weekend as well. Jackson is 5-0 by KO/TKO, 1-0 by submission, and 3-2 by decision in his career. Strader is 4-1 by KO/TKO, 0-0 by submission, and 1-0 by decision in his career. We will not try to convince you to stay away from a straight up bet on Jesse Strader at 5.5 times your money, but it is not our official pick. Our pick is Jackson by points decision, as that is the way his last three fights have ended.

Middleweight: Trevin Giles (+120) vs Roman Dolidze (-140)

Our first middleweight bout of the night features Trevin Giles (13-2-0, 4-2 UFC) facing Roman Dolidze (8-0-0, 2-0 UFC). This should be a fun matchup as both men look to continue their winning ways at 185 pounds. Giles has won his last two fights that both took place in 2020, with his most recent fight being a November 2020 KO/TKO victory over Bevon Lewis. Dolidze is yet to lose professionally and looks to stay unbeaten. His last fight was in December 2020, where he defeated John Allan by split decision. Both fighters can get the job done on the feet or on the ground. Giles is 6-0 by KO/TKO, 5-2 by submission, and 2-0 by submission in his career. Dolidze is 4-0 by KO/TKO, 3-0 by submission, and 1-0 by decision in his career. We like the odds about Giles straight up, while under 2.5 total rounds looks a safe bet.

Lightweight: Leonardo Santos (+170) vs Grant Dawson (-200)

Our fifth prelim bout features Leonardo Santos (18-4-1, 7-0-1 UFC) and Grant Dawson (16-1-0, 4-0 UFC). This is an interesting fight as it will be Dawson’s first fight at 155 pounds. His last fight was in July of 2020 at a catchweight of 150 pounds where he defeated Nad Narimani by unanimous decision, extending his win-streak to seven. Prior to that, he was fighting at 145 pounds. It will be interesting to see him compete at 10 pounds heavier than most of his past fights. Santos is a seasoned opponent for Dawson and will be quite the test. Santos is on a six-fight win streak himself, last fighting in July of 2020 as well, where he defeated Roman Bogatov by unanimous decision. Santos is 3-1 by KO/TKO, 9-0 by submission, and 6-3-1 by decision in his career. Dawson is 3-1 by KO/TKO, 11-0 by submission, and 2-0 by decision in his career. The last and only time Dawson was finished was in 2016, while Santos hasn’t been finished since 2006. For that reason, we like the overs on the total rounds line.

Women’s Bantamweight: Marion Reneau (+175) vs Macy Chiasson (-205)

Welcome to the prelim main event. #9 ranked women’s bantamweight Marion Reneau (9-6-1, 5-5-1 UFC) takes on #11 ranked Women’s Bantamweight and former The Ultimate Fighter featherweight champion Macy Chiasson (7-1-0, 3-1 UFC). Reneau is looking to end a three-fight skid against tough competition in fighters like Raquel Pennington, Yana Kunitskaya, and Cat Zingano. Chiasson is looking to take Reneau’s spot in the bantamweight rankings. Reneau’s last fight was in June of 2020 where she was defeated by unanimous decision by Raquel Pennington. Chiasson’s last fight was a February 2020 unanimous decision victory over Shanna Young. Chiasson is 3-0 by KO/TKO, 2-0 by submission, and 2-1 by decision in her career. Reneau is 5-0 by KO/TKO, 3-0 by submission, and 1-6-1 by decision in her career. If you like Reneau in this fight, we recommend you back her to win it inside the distance, as she has not fared well by decision in recent time. We side with Chiasson in this one, taking her by points decision as Reneau is yet to be finished.