UFC Vegas 26: Rodriguez vs Waterson main card picks & top odds

With the scheduled main event between T.J. Dillashaw and Cory Sandhagen canceled due to an injury to Dillashaw, Marina Rodriquez and Michelle Waterson step into the UFC Vegas 26 main event slot this Saturday night at the Apex. Here’s a closer look at that fight and the rest of the main card leading up to it.

Women’s Flyweight: Marina Rodriguez (-210) vs Michelle Waterson (+180)

Marina Rodriguez (13-1-2) earned a Performance of the Night bonus for her TKO win over Amanda Ribas in her last trip to the Octagon at UFC 257. Rodriguez’s only professional loss came last July by split decision to Carla Esparza. Michelle Waterson (18-8) snapped a two-fight losing streak in her last bout with a split decision win over Angela Hill.

Both women shift up to flyweight for this bout. If that shift favors anyone, it would be Rodriguez with her superior power. Rodriguez’s struggles in the UFC have generally come against great grapplers, but against a fellow striker in Waterson, she should be able to grind out a victory.

Welterweight: Donald Cerrone (-150) vs Alex Morono (+130)

Donald Cerrone (36-15) will be looking for his first win in over two years on Saturday, as he has gone 0-4-1 over his last five fights (with his most recent draw against Niko Price overturned after ‘The Hybrid’ tested positive for marijuana). Alex Morono (18-7-0) steps into this fight on short notice after the UFC cut ties with Diego Sanchez last week. Morono went 1-2 in 2020 and doesn’t inspire much confidence, but it’s hard to pass on the underdog odds given Cerrone’s recent form.

Welterweight: Geoff Neal (-180) vs Neil Magny (+155)

Geoff Neal (13-3-0) had a seven-fight winning streak – including a 5-0 start in the UFC – snapped in a decision loss to Stephen Thompson last December. He will try to get back in the win column against Neil Magny (24-8-0), who had his own streak of three wins snapped in a loss to Michael Chiesa in January. Magny offers great value here; while Neal has the clear edge in power, Magny’s experience and five-inch reach advantage make him worth a shot as an underdog.

Heavyweight: Marcos Rogério de Lima (-200) vs Maurice Greene (+170)

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (17-7-1) is 5-5 across his 10-fight UFC career with alternating wins and losses over that stretch. Maurice Greene (9-5-0) is 1-3 over his last four fights and has been stopped in all three of those losses. Rogerio de Lima is the better fighter, has more power, and is “due” for a win after losing his last fight, if patterns are your thing.

Lightweight: Gregor Gillespie (-175) vs Carlos Diego Ferreira (+150)

Gregor Gillespie (13-1-0) suffered his first professional loss against Kevin Lee in his last fight back on November 2, 2019. Carlos Diego Ferreira (17-3-0) had a six-fight winning streak snapped with a loss to Beneil Dariush in February. This should be a great fight between two top-15 lightweights, but Gillespie’s edge in striking and takedowns should lead him to victory.

Women’s Strawweight: Amanda Ribas (-175) vs Angela Hill (+150)

Amanda Ribas (10-2-0) had a five-fight winning streak snapped with her loss to Marina Rodriguez at UFC 257. She’ll try to start a new win streak against Angela Hill (13-9-0), who is 4-2 over her last six fights with both of her losses coming by split decision. Hill has been on a great run and will likely be a tough out again, but the talent gap here will likely be too big for her to overcome.