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UFC Vegas 59 preview, top picks & best odds – August 6, 2022

UFC betting

Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal will clash in a bout between two top-15 welterweights this Saturday night in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 59. Here’s a betting preview for that fight, along with best bets for the other four fights on the main card leading up to the night’s main event of Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill.

Welterweight: Vicente Luque (-196) vs Geoff Neal (+171)

Vicente Luque (21-8-1) had a four-fight winning streak snapped in a decision loss to Belal Muhammad in April. Luque has performed well right below the elite tier in the welterweight class for the last five years, compiling an impressive 10-2-0 record with three submission wins and six knockout wins over that stretch. He has won a Performance of the Night or Fight of the Night bonus in six of his last nine fights.

Geoff Neal (14-4-0) was 7-0-0 including a 5-0-0 start to his UFC career before losing back-to-back fights to Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny. Neal won his most recent bout against Santiago Ponzinbbio by split decision and will try to build on that momentum with an upset win here. We just don’t see it; Luque is too well-rounded and Neal’s willingness to trade recklessly trade blows should work to the favorite’s advantage.

Vincent Luque by KO/TKO


Heavyweight: Zac Pauga (-272) vs Mohammed Usman (+232)

Kamaru Usman’s younger brother Mohammed Usman (7-2-0) is set to make his UFC debut in the Ultimate Fighter 30 Heavyweight tournament final. He finds himself going off as a significant underdog to Zac Pauga (5-0-0), who will also be making his UFC debut and will be entering this fight with a perfect 5-0 record. It feels strange to bet against an Usman, but Pauga is the more polished fighter and he should get the job done here barring a surprise knockout or something along those lines.

Zac Pauga by decision


Women’s Flyweight: Brogan Walker-Sanchez (+105) vs Juliana Miller (-125)

The Ultimate Fighter Women’s Flyweight tournament final brings Brogan Walker-Sanchez (7-2-0) into the octagon against Juliana Miller (2-1-0). This is a tough fight to predict as Walker-Sanchez is the more promising prospect between the two, but she’s giving up a lot of experience in this fight. At these odds, we feel that Walker-Sanchez is the side with more value in what should be a very competitive fight.

Brogan Walker-Sanchez by decision


Heavyweight: Augusto Sakai (+227) vs Sergey Spivak (-267)

It doesn’t seem like so long ago that Augusto Sakai (15-4-1) was a red-hot heavyweight prospect with a 15-1-1 record and a 4-0-0 start to his UFC career. His stock has plummeted since then however with three straight knockout losses to Alistair Overeem, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Tai Tuivasa. Sergey Spivak (14-3-0) on the other hand is still trending in the right direction with a 4-1-0 record over his last five fights; he’s the clear pick in this spot.

Sergey Spivak by KO/TKO


Women’s Flyweight: Ariane Lipski (-175) vs Priscila Cachoeira (+150)

Ariane Lipski (14-7-0) snapped a two-fight losing streak with a decision win over Mandy Bohm last September. Priscila Cachoeira (11-4-0) improved to 3-1 over her last four fights with a decision win over Ji Yeon Kim in February after opening her UFC career with an 0-3-0 record from 2018 to 2019. Six of Cachoeira’s last eight wins have come by knockout, as have each of Lipski’s last two losses; the price is right here to take a shot on the upset coming in with a timely knockout.

Priscila Cachoeira by KO/TKO


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