Usman vs Covington preview & best bets – UFC 268 main event

Kamaru Usman will be looking for his fifth straight successful title defense of the UFC Welterweight Championship against Colby Covington this Saturday night in the main event of UFC 268. Madison Square Garden will play host to this rematch of the Usman vs Covington fight that took place at UFC 245 in December of 2019.

Usman vs Covington fight analysis

Kamaru Usman (19-1-0) is as dominant as they come. He has won 18 straight fights since losing his second career professional bout all the way back in 2013 and has compiled a perfect 13-0 record in the UFC. Three of his last four wins have come by way of knockout including his TKO victory over Colby Covington the last time these two welterweights clashed. Usman is currently ranked the No. 1 pound-for-pound MMA fighter in the world and is still in the heart of his prime at just 34 years old.

Colby Covington (16-2-0) has fought only once since his loss to Usman, earning a technical knockout win over Tyron Woodley in September of 2020. Prior to his title shot against Usman, Covington had compiled a 7-0 record in the UFC welterweight division with big wins over Demian Maia, Rafael do Anjos and Robbie Lawler. The last fight between these two was competitive at the time of Covington’s knockout as one judge had the fight scored 39-37 Covington, one had it 39-37 Usman and one had it 38-38 heading into the fourth round.

Usman vs Covington betting predictions

Usually the UFC would make the path to a championship rematch after a knockout loss a bit more difficult for the loser. But this is a rematch that fight fans have been clamoring to see considering how thoroughly Usman has dominated his other competition. Colby Covington gave Kamaru Usman a much more challenging fight than Jorge Masvidal did in his two title shots, or than Gilbert Burns did at UFC 258.

There may be some value on Covington here at this price. The challenger looked good in his first match against Usman and may not be getting the proper respect on the betting board. But that could also just be a testament to how good Usman is. Usman’s in-ring IQ is off the charts and he’s so strong both on his feet and on the ground that it’s tough to see him losing by decision, which would be Covington’s most obvious path to a victory.

This should be a great main event fight. It will be interesting to see if either fighter adjusts their takedown attempt strategies in this rematch. Both are strong grapplers, but neither attempted a takedown in their first fight, opting to keep the fight standing and trading blows instead. In a five-round fight, we have to roll with Usman finding another win in another successful title defense.