Vikings vs. Patriots NFL spread betting – free week 13 analysis & tips

Betting Line: Patriots -5
Over/Under: 48.5 points at 888 Sportsbook

The Vikings have won two of their last three games, but this match-up against New England on Tuesday night will show if they are a true NFL playoffs contender.

The Vikings have not beaten a team this season that has a winning record and they need a win in this game to keep pace with the Chicago Bears, who are 8-3 in the NFC North. The Vikings have gotten back on track on the defensive side of the football and this game facing Tom Brady and company on the road will be a big test for their defense.

The Patriots are right where they are used to being atop the AFC East. They are the only team in the division with a winning record and they won their last game after a shocking blowout loss to the Tennessee Titans. Tom Brady has avoided Father Time and has played well this season and he got a lot of help from the run game in the last one. The pass defense remains an issue with New England and with Kirk Cousins and a legit Minnesota pass game coming to town that is their main concern for this non-conference matchup.

These teams have not met since back in the 2014 season.

This season the Vikings are 6-4-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 5-6 with the Patriots are at 7-4 ATS with an Over/Under record of 4-7.

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In the last five games between these teams the road team has covered the spread four times.

In their last game, the Vikings came up big beating their NFC North rival in the Green Bay Packers 24-17. They had 416 total yards while holding the Packers to 254 yards and in the second half their defense took over only allowing three points.

In the win over Green Bay, Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins was solid passing for 342 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He has a great wide receiver duo in Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, who combined for 202 receiving yards. The run game was not there for the Vikings even in the win, as Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook were the top two rushers for the team each failing to average over three yards per carry and they only combined for 62 rushing yards.

While the Vikings may go to the air facing New England and their 25th ranked pass defense Minnesota needs to try to establish the run, in order to eat the clock and keep Brady on the sidelines.

The Patriots were on the road in their last game and had a convincing 27-13 win over the New York Jets. They played the run well and had 498 yards while giving up 338 yards and they put the game away in the second half outscoring New York 17-3.

Brady spread the wealth around with his targets in the win over New York and was solid, yet unspectacular, in passing for 238 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Sony Michel had a big game with 133 rushing yards in his biggest game of the season.

Brady and company will be going up against a Vikings’ defense that ranks fourth in the league against the run and fifth against the pass.

Minnesota Vikings betting trends

• 1-6 ATS in their last seven games facing a team with a winning record
• 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win
• Over record of 5-1 in their last six road games

Use these betting trends with the best NFL online bookmakers

New England Patriots betting trends

• 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games facing a team with a winning record
• 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS win
• 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 home games
• Under record of 4-0 in their last four games

Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots betting prediction

The Vikings are back in the playoff picture, winning two of their last three games, but that picture will get less clear after this game.

The Patriots will get a good game from Brady and they will run the ball well, even on the solid Minnesota front line defense.

While this game will not be a blowout the Patriots will win and cover in their house.

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