Volkov vs Aspinall main event picks & odds – UFC Fight Night 204

Two of the UFC’s best young heavyweights meet in the main event of UFC Fight Night 204 this Saturday as Alexander Volkov takes on Tom Aspinall. The Liverpool native Aspinall will have the home crowd behind him on Saturday with this fight card taking place at the O2 Arena in London.

Tom Aspinall record, form & results

Tom Aspinall (11-2-0) is off to a fantastic start in the UFC with a 4-0-0 record that includes three knockout wins and one submission win. Three of those four wins have earned the young heavyweight Performance of the Night honors. Aspinall is 7-0-0 since his last loss via disqualification in May of 2016. He has never had a fight go to the cards, earning nine of his 11 professional wins by knockout and two by submission.

Alexander Volkov record, form & results

Alexander Volkov (34-9-0) currently sits at no.6 in the UFC Heavyweight rankings. He snapped Marcin Tybura’s five-fight winning streak with a decision win in October, proving once again that he can beat anyone outside of the UFC’s top tier of heavyweights. Volkov is 8-3 since joining the promotion in 2016, and his three losses have come against top-five heavyweights in Derrick Lewis (no.5), Curtis Blaydes (no.4) and Ciryl Gane (no.1).

Volkov vs Aspinall betting predictions

It isn’t often that you see a main event fight being listed at near pick’em odds with most betting sites. There’s usually a clear favorite with some sort of noticeable advantage, but you won’t find that here. Aspinall has looked the part of a legitimate heavyweight contender and has toppled some veteran gatekeepers in Sergey Spivak and Andrei Arlovski. But Tybura looked the part too before running into Volkov.

It’s easy to make a case for either side in this matchup. And both fighters are very comfortable standing up and throwing strikes, so this one should be an exciting slugfest from start to finish. Aspinall likely has the edge if this fight goes to the ground, while Volkov has the clear edge in experience and has fought much more proven competition. This one feels like a coin flip, just like the latest UFC betting odds indicate.

Aspinall is likely going to be the more popular pick in this one, given his red-hot start in the UFC and his home crowd advantage in London. But we’re going to go with Volkov. It wouldn’t surprise us to see Aspinall pass this test in his toughest fight to date, but it would surprise us even less to see Volkov come in with a better gameplan and to grind out a win over his talented young opponent.