Wimbledon 2015: Fourth round betting preview and predictions

THE fourth round at Wimbledon begins on Monday, July 6th 2015 at the All England Club.

There are four matches on the men’s draw and four matches on the women’s draw on Monday. We’re going to take a look at the betting markets for each match and provide a quick preview, along with our best bets for Monday’s action.

Djokovic vs. Anderson odds and picks

Match Odds: Djokovic (-2300) vs. Anderson (+1350)
Games Total: Over 31.5 (-117) vs. Under 31.5 (-113)
Games Won: Djokovic -7 (-130) vs. Anderson +7 (+100)

Djokovic (Ranking: 1) and Anderson (Ranking: 14) have played each other five times and Djokovic is 4-1 – winning the last four H2H matches. Djokovic has already beaten Kohlschreiber, Nieminen and Tomic in straight sets at this year’s Wimbledon.

Anderson has had a relatively easy path and he has still had some trouble advancing against Pouille, Ilhan and Mayer. These two have played once on grass – Djokovic won (6-3, 6-4 & 6-2) at Wimbledon 2011. I’m betting on Djokovic at -7 games (-130).

The big serve of Anderson is worrisome, but Djokovic has shown multiple times that he can handle Anderson’s serve with ease.

Wawrinka vs. Goffin odds and picks

Match Odds: Wawrinka (-365) vs. Goffin (+305)
Games Total: Over 36.5 (-120) vs. Under 36.5 (-110)
Games Won: Wawrinka -5.5 (-110) vs. Goffin +5.5 (-120)

This match between Stanislas Wawrinka (Ranking: 4) and David Goffin (Ranking: 15) is a tough one to predict.

Wawrinka will win, but the money line odds don’t interest me. I’m waiting for the set market to be released, but for now I’ve bet on over 36.5 games (-120), which would require Goffin to either win a set or force tiebreakers in a couple of sets.

These two have played each other twice, including once this year. Wawrinka won (7-5 & 6-3) at Chennai this year, but Goffin has been in great form at Wimbledon. He just dominated Baghdatis and I believe this match will be tighter than most expect.

Gasquet vs. Kyrgios odds and picks

Match Odds: Gasquet (+100) vs. Kyrgios (-120)
Games Total: Over 43.5 (-105) vs. Under 43.5 (-125)
Games Won: Gasquet +1.5 (-135) vs. Kyrgios -1.5 (+105)

Here’s a match I can’t wait to watch between Richard Gasquet (Ranking: 20) and Nick Kyrgios (Ranking: 29).

These two have some history – they’ve played each other three times since last year and Gasquet is 2-1. However, Kyrgios won the lone match on grass at last year’s Wimbledon in five sets. The match had two tiebreakers, including one in the final set.

I’m expecting another back and forth match between these two in-form players. Gasquet just beat Dimitrov and Kyrgios just beat Raonic. Both are in great form and I expect a five-set match, so my best bet is on over 43.5 games at -105 odds.

The other match on the men’s draw scheduled for Monday isn’t set yet.

Denis Kudla will play the winner of John Isner vs. Marin Cilic. Isner and Cilic are tied 10-10 in the 5th set and will resume play this morning (Saturday, July 4, 2015). The winner will play Kudla and we’ll update this article with the odds once they’re released.

S. Williams vs. V. Williams odds and picks

Match Odds: S. Williams (-430) vs. V. Williams (+345)
Games Total: Over 21.5 (-120) vs. Under 21.5 (-110)
Games Won: S. Williams -4.5 (-115) vs. V. Williams +4.5 (-115)

Venus Williams (Ranking: 16) has held her own against her sister Serena Williams (Ranking: 1) throughout her career.

Serena holds a 14-11 H2H advantage over her sister and they’re 1-1 in the last two matches. Venus won the last H2H match on the hard court. On grass courts – Serena is 3-2 against Venus – but they haven’t played on grass since back in 2009.

I like the value on the money line for Venus, but I’m being cautious and betting on Venus +4.5 games (-115) at Bovada. Many of the matches between these two end up close and Venus has arguably played better so far at Wimbledon this year.

Azarenka vs. Bencic odds and picks

Match Odds: Azarenka (-260) vs. Bencic (+220)
Games Total: Over 22 (-110) vs. Under 22 (-120)
Games Won: Azarenka -3.5 (-125) vs. Bencic +3.5 (-105)

These odds are out of whack – Victoria Azarenka (Ranking: 24) shouldn’t be such a big favorite against Belinda Bencic (Ranking: 23).

Neither lady has a huge serve, but both are capable of nailing big aces when needed the most. Bencic has been on a tear during the grass court season. She won at Eastbourne right before Wimbledon with wins over Wozniacki (SF) and Radwanska (F).

There are no H2H results to analyze, but I like Bencic on grass and I’m not passing her up at these odds.

Sharapova vs. Diyas odds and picks

Match Odds: Sharapova (-1400) vs. Diyas (+925)
Games Total: Over 18.5 (-105) vs. Under 18.5 (-125)
Games Won: Sharapova -6.5 (-118) vs. Diyas +6.5 (-112)

Maria Sharapova (Ranking: 4) should have little problem advancing to the Wimbledon QF’s with a win over Zarina Diyas (Ranking: 34). They met in the Aussie Open earlier this year and Sharapova easily won the match in straight sets (6-1 & 6-1).

I’m going to be betting on under 18.5 games in this match – the match odds have absolutely no value.

Neither player has had a tough path at Wimbledon yet and this should be another cakewalk for the Russian. Sharapova’s last match had 19 games, but her two previous matches at Wimbledon had less games played.

Vandeweghe vs. Safarova odds and picks

Match Odds: Vandeweghe (+145) vs. Safarova (-165)
Games Total: Over 23 (-105) vs. Under 23 (-125)
Games Won: Vandeweghe +2.5 (-112) vs. Safarova -2.5 (-118)

The final women’s match on Monday is between Coca Vandeweghe (Ranking: 47) and Lucie Safarova (Ranking: 6).

Vandeweghe has been a great bet all year, but even more so the past month. She has already beaten Stosur and Pliskova at this year’s Wimbledon – both matches ended in straight sets. Safarova is coming off of a 3-set win against Stephens.

Safarova isn’t great on the grass and Vandeweghe has the much bigger serve on this surface. The American has 28 aces in three singles matches at Wimbledon. She presents nice value as an underdog and she’s the best bet in this match.

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