Wimbledon Day 3 betting predictions – Wednesday, June 30

The final day of the first round at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships is already here, and the field of 128 singles players will soon be whittled down to 64. Here’s a look at our top Wimbledon betting plays this Wednesday.

Sam Querrey (-135) vs Pablo Carreno Busta (+115)

At first glance, it may seem odd that Pablo Carreno Busta – who is ranked 13th in the ATP singles rankings with a tournament win under his belt at Marbella earlier this season – is an underdog to the 54th-ranked Sam Querrey. Querrey is just 8-9 in 2021, while Busta is 19-8.

But plenty of signs point to Querrey getting the better of this matchup. The American is at his best on grass with a career record of 74-41 on the surface. He has enjoyed plenty of past success at Wimbledon with upset wins over Dominic Thiem and Andrey Rublev in 2019, and he even beat Novak Djokovic in this event in 2016. Grass is Busta’s worst surface as the Spaniard is just 4-9 on the surface in his career.

On clay, this would be a pretty easy pick in Busta’s direction. On this surface in this tournament, however, Querrey isn’t likely to be sent packing in the first round.

Steve Johnson (-114) vs Dennis Novak (-106)

After getting off to a dreadful start in 2021, Steve Johnson had a solid showing in the French Open to advance to the round of 32 with wins over Frances Tiafoe and Thiago Monteiro. Now he returns to the grass, which is his best surface with a winning record of 31-25. Johnson has enjoyed some success at Wimbledon before, advancing to the round of 32 three times in his last four appearances in this event.

Dennis Novak, meanwhile, failed to qualify in each of his last three tournaments leading into Wimbledon. He owns a career record of 22-37 overall and has very little experience on grass. Nothing about his current form suggest he should be priced as a near pick’em with Johnson in this match.

Frances Tiafoe (-113) vs Vasek Pospisil (-107)

Frances Tiafoe is always tricky to bet on as he has a ton of talent but can be wildly inconsistent. Tiafoe’s ability was on display in a brilliant performance against Stefanos Tsitsipas in which the 23-year-old won in straight sets 6-4, 6-4, 6-3. Vasek Pospisil is also coming into this match off of a straight-sets win (6-3, 6-3, 6-3), although his opponent – the clay specialist Roberto Carballes Baena – was a far less impressive scalp.

At his best, Tiafoe wins this match convincingly. Pospisil is a good player, but his 18-27 record on grass doesn’t command respect. Bettors who have been burned by Tiafoe’s lousy performances in the past may shy away from the American here, but he looked the part of a man who had turned a corner against Tsitsipas. We’ll take the bait.

Andy Murray (-253) vs Oscar Otte (+213)

Andy Murray is just 3-3 in an injury-laden 2021 season. Some bettors may see this as a red flag, but we see this as an opportunity to get some value on the former no.1 player in the world at a discounted price. Murray is a two-time champion and a fan-favorite at Wimbledon who will have the home crowd behind him as he did in his 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3 win over Nikoloz Basilashvili in the first round.

Oscar Otte powered his way through qualifiers to earn a spot in the round of 128 and then was pushed to the limit in the first round, edging out a 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-7, 13-12 win over Arthur Rinderknech. Bettors may be drawn to the recent form, but all four of his Wimbledon wins have come against subpar opponents. Otte will be outclassed in this one.