2022 NCAA Basketball March Madness betting picks & top odds

As the NFL season has ended, many sports fans will now turn their attention to college basketball and all the dramatics that unfold in that realm. After some issues with a Covid plagued tournament over the past couple years, it appears that the sport has turned that corner. The March Madness tournament is fast approaching and this year, like any other, is wide open. With a good mix of traditional blue bloods along with some new powers, it is shaping up to be a month of excitement.

Last year’s finalists, Gonzaga, are this year’s betting favorites. The Bulldogs have been dominant in recent years but that title has evaded them. With projected top pick, Chet Holmgren, their chances have never been better and Bovada are giving them +400 odds to pull it out. While Gonzaga is as good a choice as any, blindly betting the favorites is not the way in college basketball and there are some better value picks.

March Madness is known for its unpredictably and shock upsets. Each year, the first couple weekends are crazy but people tend to overlook the consistency in the champions. When it comes to college basketball, there is no statistician more revered than Ken Pomeroy and his personal rankings have been used to make picks by experts all around the landscape. Aside from UConn in 2014, the March Madness champion has been ranked in his top 20 efficiency ratings for both offense and defense each of the last 15 years.

This year, six teams qualify by those standards and two more just barely miss the cut. Using Ken Pom’s rankings and the quota listed above, those teams are Gonzaga, Arizona, Baylor, Auburn, Houston and UCLA. Kentucky is 21st ranked in defense and Duke is 22nd in defense, which means they don’t meet the requirements as of now. It is safe to say that this year’s March Madness champion will be one of those teams.

Obviously, that is a lot of teams to put a future down on and it wouldn’t be wise to bet them all. That would drastically hinder your return and wouldn’t be a profitable strategy to bet on the tournament.

Gonzaga odds are +400 and while they are the best team, betting on the favorite in a tournament that possess a lot of variance will not always work out. Both Kentucky and Arizona are at +800 and are the next two favorites. Kentucky is an interesting bet because of their pedigree and they have the coach in John Calipari to make a deep run. They are a traditional powerhouse and are coming off a down season where they will be looking to avenge their previous struggles.

Of the other teams that meet the above-listed criteria, Auburn has odds of +1000 and Baylor has odds of +1800. Baylor won last year and considering the rarity of having a repeat champion, we recommend staying away from them. Auburn has had a resurgent year but at +1000, their odds do not represent the value of other bets on the board. If you like Auburn, it would be best to wait for their odds to drop a bit if they lose a game or two heading into the tournament.

Houston and UCLA are the only other two teams that fit the criteria and haven’t been touched on in this article. UCLA had a surprise run to the final four last year as an 11 seed where they lost to Gonzaga in what was an instant classic. Houston also lost in the final four but got blown out by the eventual champions, Baylor.

Both teams are just a year removed from a deep run and are playing great basketball yet again. Houston is in a weaker conference but their odds are as high as +4000 in some places. That is a great value for a team that was close last year and is building on it this year. The same can be said for UCLA. Mick Cronin has rebuilt that program into a real contender and with odds of +2500 to win the title, they represent another great value bet.

It is not easy to win in March Madness. The format of the tournament is conducive to drama and it is largely unpredictable. However, using certain benchmarks and trusting your instincts are very important for picking the eventual champion. By doing so, we have picked Kentucky, UCLA and Houston as the best bets moving forward. The lines are always changing, but by locking in three teams at a good price today, you will be set up for profit by the time the Final Four rolls around.

Top Three Picks To Win The 2022 NCAA Basketball March Madness

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