NFL Week 11 best picks and top prop bets | Sunday, November 20

The NFL is entering the final stretch of the season and the playoff picture is starting to come together. Week 11 started with the Tennessee Titans storming into Lambeau Field and taking down the Green Bay Packers 27-17. It was a great start to the week and this Sunday slate promises to have some awesome games. Here are our best picks and prop bets for the games on Sunday.

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns

The Bills are one of the NFL’s truly elite teams and while they have stumbled in recent weeks, this is a great spot for Buffalo to re-affirm themselves as the team to beat. Due to snow, this game will be played in Detroit rather than Buffalo but that shouldn’t matter. The Browns are inferior to the Bills in all phases of the game and the Bills should be able to score on them with ease. Defensively, the Bills have been beatable in recent weeks but Jacoby Brissett and the Browns are not going to move the ball like some of the other Bills opponents. The Bills have won four games by double digits this season and this contest looks like it will be their fifth.

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears

After weeks of having Bears QB Justin Fields’ rushing props in the 40-50 yard area, books have finally adjusted. That being said, it’s still not enough and we are going to keep riding with Fields until he lets us down. Justin Fields has cleared 80 rushing yards in four of his last five games and he has cleared 140 rushing yards in his past two. Clearly, the Bears’ coaching staff is entrusting Fields to use his legs more and defenses have been powerless to stop it. Take his over in rushing yards again as Fields hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers

In this game between solid rushing offenses, we like the over. While these teams are on opposite ends of the NFL pantheon, we do think both offenses will be able to move the ball on the ground and clear this low total. There are no doubts about the Ravens scoring. Lamar Jackson, the Baltimore QB, is an elite talent and he should have a field day with the Panthers’ lackluster defense. The Panthers, on the other hand, are harder to count on but they have cleared 20 points in their last four matchups. This game could get ugly, but we believe points will be had and the over is far too low considering these teams’ recent performances.

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Ever since Rhamondre took full control of the lead running back position for the Patriots, he has been the best offensive player for New England. Rhamondre has four touchdowns in his past four games and the Patriots offensive line is performing well enough to give Stevenson a chance to score on any play. The Jets have a great defense but this game is expected to be close and both teams will lean on their running backs. If Rhamondre gets the work he is projected to handle, he is a great bet to score as he is the only trustworthy player on this Patriots offense.

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders

This Commanders team is a different animal with Taylor Heinicke at the helm. While it’s not pretty, Heinicke knows how to win and he is 3-1 as a starter this year. A big reason for that has been Washington’s insistence on establishing the run game and it has worked. Now, this week, the Commanders have a great matchup against the worst rushing defense in the NFL and their backs should be in for a big game. The Texans’ season is over and this team has lost by a touchdown or more in four straight games. The Commanders should go into Houston and easily take care of the Texans, even if we’re not sold on Washington as a good team.

Well, we just talked about the Commanders playing the worst rushing defense in the league, so let’s talk about the Commanders running back, the rookie Brian Robinson. Robinson is a physical runner who has recently taken a stranglehold on the starting position for the Commanders. And they are leaning on him. He has received over 15 touches in four of his five games played and if he gets that work, he will clear this number with ease. However, we expect him to get more rushes than that as Robinson was given the rock a stunning 26 times last week in the Washington win over the previously undefeated Philadelphia Eagles. Robinson is in line for another 20 carries and against the Texans’ Swiss cheese rush defense, he could double his rushing yards prop.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

This week’s Sunday Night feature is projected to be fun one between two prospective playoff teams. In this divisional battle, the 5-4 Los Angeles Chargers will host the 7-2 Kansas City Chiefs and while the Chiefs are the better team, the Chargers may finally have some offensive reinforcements coming their way. Wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are expected to return from injury and play in this game and they will give the Chargers more offensive firepower than they have had in recent weeks. And we think this will allow them to keep up with the Chiefs. Both of these teams will be able to score and if that happens, this will be a close game. Due to that, we will take the underdog to keep it close and possibly even come away with a season-defining win.

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