AFL Finals 2023: Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide betting tips

Brisbane vs Port Adelaide best bets

Lions vs Power qualifying final preview

Closing out the opening week of the 2023 AFL finals, the Port Adelaide Power travel north to face the Brisbane Lions in the second qualifying final on Saturday night.

In round 24, the Lions avoided a major scare as they confirmed a top-two spot by beating the St Kilda Saints in a low-scoring affair. Inaccuracy plagued the Lions all day and allowed the Saints to get within a point in the last quarter, but Brisbane proved too strong in the end as they ran out 12-point winners.

Securing a top-two finish was vital for the Brisbane Lions. With their struggles at the MCG widely known, they now have a clear path to make the 2023 AFL Grand Final without leaving the Gabba, where they remain undefeated this season.

The Power hosted the Richmond Tigers in the final round, winning by 31 points in a back-and-forth contest. The Tigers were as close as five points behind in the final term, but Port booted five of the last six goals to seal the deal and take some momentum into the finals.

After sitting in the top two for most of the season, the Power will feel as though they missed an opportunity to have two home finals. Travelling up to Brisbane this weekend, the Power will have to do it the hard way if they are going to win the premiership in 2023.

Small forward Lincoln McCarthy returns to the line-up this week for the Lions, while veteran midfielder Jarryd Lyons has been omitted.

For the Power, a trio of big bodies return this week with Scott Lycett, Trent McKenzie and Todd Marshall all back from injury. Veterans Tom Jonas and Travis Boak have been omitted, as well as the young pair of Francis Evans and Sam Hayes.

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Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide betting strategy

In the only match outside Melbourne this weekend, the Brisbane Lions come in as major favourites after winning their last four matches of the season. As the top offensive team in the AFL, the Lions will be looking to outscore a Power outfit that holds the worst defensive record of any side in the top eight.

The Port Adelaide Power will also be looking to play a high-scoring game style, with their three tall forwards providing different targets inside 50. However, coming up against a star-studded Lions midfield, they will be looking for big performances from Zak Butters and Connor Rozee.

Brisbane have been dominant at the Gabba all year, and that is unlikely to change this weekend. We are taking the Lions at the -13.5 line, paying -111.11 with Bovada.

With the two highest-scoring teams in the AFL playing in dry conditions at the Gabba, the betting sites have set the total points line at 174.5. Coupled with the poor defensive numbers of the Power, we are expecting a high-scoring affair that goes over that mark.

Enjoying a career-best season, Port Adelaide midfielder Zak Butters looks set to have a massive finals series. He has collected 30 or more disposals in each of his last six matches, and we are backing him to hit that mark again this weekend at -119.05 with the top AFL betting sites.

Key matchup: Daniher v Aliir

Joe Daniher is having his best season since joining the Lions, with 51 goals so far in 2023. Playing a forward-ruck role at times, Daniher has been equally damaging up the ground and inside 50. With great hands and a damaging kick, Daniher is a threat from anywhere within 60 metres of goal.

Tasked with the matchup, Aliir Aliir has shown good form against Daniher in the past. During their match earlier this season, the Port Adelaide stopper kept Daniher to just one goal. Known for his athleticism, Aliir has the pace and marking prowess to keep up with Daniher, but he will need to balance this responsibility with his intercept marking, which is so important for the Power.

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