Aspinall v Blaydes UFC 304 picks, odds & predictions | July 28

The UFC 304 co-main event at Co-op Live in Manchester on Sunday morning pits local favourite Tom Aspinall against Curtis Blaydes for the interim heavyweight crown. With a raucous crowd at his back, Aspinall looks hard to beat in this rematch.

Aspinall v Blaydes fight analysis

Tom Aspinall vs Curtis Blaydes

Tom Aspinall (14-3-0) has lost a single fight since 2016, due to a self-inflicted knee injury incurred in the opening seconds of his last bout with this opponent. The Brit moves exceedingly well for a heavyweight, combining powerful striking with an elite submission game, and enters this rematch as the short-priced favourite with online bookies.

In his latest appearance, the 31-year-old claimed the interim heavyweight crown with a first-round knockout of the dangerous Sergei Pavlovich. Aspinall is waiting on a date with the injured Jon Jones to solidify his undisputed champion status at 265 pounds.

Curtis Blaydes (18-4-0) has compiled an impressive winning run since 2021, with four wins and a single loss in the UFC’s most volatile division. The 33-year-old is a former college wrestler who has worked hard on improving his agility and striking in recent years, and he is coming off a devastating knockout win over Jailton Almeida.

Blaydes will need to be at his elusive best to avoid the heavy hands that are bound to fly in his direction from the opening bell. He would be wise to fight from either very long range or chest-to-chest, where he can use his wrestling base to manhandle Aspinall and take the sting out of his powerful attacks.

Aspinall v Blaydes betting tips

Aspinall appears to have the tools to comfortably account for Blaydes. The Brit carefully measures his shots and should not leave too many openings. Blaydes has been knocked out on four occasions, and his chin is bound to be tested here.

The most obvious outcome appears to be a stoppage win for Aspinall. The only question is whether he chases a submission after rocking Blaydes with strikes, or else follows up with ground-and-pound to earn the TKO. The latter option is more favoured in UFC betting markets and looks like the way to go.

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