MLB Pick: Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

Overview

The Miami Marlins are in Cincinnati for the second game of their three game series with the Reds. This will be the 6th meeting of the season between the Marlins and Reds with the Reds winning 3 of the first 5 meetings. Cincinnati has won 13 of the last 20 meetings overall versus the Marlins and they have also won 13 of the last 20 meetings in Cincinnati.

Head to Head Trends

Marlins are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.
Marlins are 7-19 in the last 26 meetings in Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Reds (-146)

The Cincinnati Reds are 4th in the National League Central 5 games back of the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds are just 2 games over .500 on the season at 59-57 but are 5 games over .500 at home with 31 wins and 26 losses. The Reds are one of the lower scoring teams in the league averaging 3.79 runs per game but they are also one of the better pitching teams in baseball allowing just 3.57 runs per game. The Reds had a little hiccup losing 7 games in a row back in July but they have turned things around and have now won 7 of their last 11 games. Over their last 10 games the Reds averaged 4.30 runs per game on offense and just 2.70 runs per game on defense. On the hill for the Reds today is Alfredo Simon who is 12-7 with a 3.07 ERA in 22 starts this season.

Cincinnati Reds Trends

Reds are 8-2 in Simons last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
Reds are 11-5 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

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Miami Marlins (+136)

The Miami Marlins are 3rd in the National League East 6.5 games back of the Washington Nationals. The Marlins play solid ball at home where they are 3 games over .500 but they have struggled on the road this season where they are just 25-31. Away from home the Marlins average 3.64 runs per game on offense and allow 4.52 runs per game on defense so they’re actually lucky their road record is as good as it is with number like those. Starting for the Marlins today is Brad Penny who will be making his first appearance in the Majors since 2012.

Miami Marlins Trends
Marlins are 17-36 in their last 53 vs. National League Central.
Marlins are 2-5 in their last 7 games as an underdog.

Conclusion

I like the Cincinnati Reds to bounce back and beat the Marlins in this one today. The Reds are playing some solid ball right now and are at home while the Marlins have struggled on the road this season plus they have Brad Penny starting who hasn’t pitched in a couple years so I’m not expecting a lot out of him today.

Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds -146