UFC Vegas 28 main card predictions & betting odds – 5/6/2021

The co-main event for UFC Vegas 28 was originally expected to be between Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill, but that fight was scrapped as Ribas is suffering from COVID-19 symptoms. Marcin Tybura and Walt Harris step into that slot in what should be an exciting card this Saturday night in Las Vegas leading up to the heavyweight main event bout of Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Augusto Sakai.

Heavyweight: Marcin Tybura (-165) vs Walt Harris (+145)

Marcin Tybura (21-6-0) suffered through a 1-4 slump that stretched from 2017 through 2019. He has bounced back since then with a fantastic 2020 that saw him go a perfect 4-0 with wins over Sergey Spivak, Maxim Grishin, Ben Rothwell and Greg Hardy. Tybura will try to roll the momentum of his strong 2020 into a win here in his first fight in 2021.

Walt Harris (13-9-0) has lost each of his last two fights against Alistair Overeem and Alexander Volkov by second-round knockout. You always know exactly what you are going to get from Harris; all 13 of his pro wins have come by way of knockout and 11 of those 13 knockouts came in the first round. Harris goes all out in the first round and either scores the knockout or burns out trying.

If you do decide to bet on Harris, bet on him to win by knockout as that is his only realistic path to victory. Tybura could get caught by the dangerous striker, but we like his chances to weather the storm and then grind out a victory in the second and third round.

Middleweight: Roman Dolidze (-151) vs Laureano Staropoli (+131)

Roman Dolidze (8-1-0) suffered the first loss of his professional career in his third fight in the UFC to Trevin Giles. Laureano Staropoli (9-3-0) had won seven straight fights including his first two fights with the UFC before suffering back-to-back losses to Muslim Salikhov in 2019 and Tim Means in 2020. Seven of Dolidze’s eight wins have come by stoppage and his one loss came by decision; look for him to bounce back with a solid performance on Saturday.

Welterweight: Miguel Baeza (-113) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio (-107)

Miguel Baeza (10-0-0) is undefeated through his first 10 fights and is off to a red-hot start in the UFC with a 3-0 record via two knockouts and one submission win. Baeza gets his toughest test to date against Santiago Ponzinibbio (27-4-0), who was on a seven-fight winning streak before being knocked out in his last fight against Jingliang Li after returning from a 26-month hiatus. Ponzinibbio will be a dangerous fighter again when he shakes off his ring rust, and that may be as early as this fight; but we can’t pick against Baeza here after Ponzinibbio looked a bit gun-shy in his return to the octagon.

Middleweight: Dusko Todorovic (-145) vs Gregory Rodrigues (+125)

Dusko Todorovic (10-1-0) took his first career loss in January when he was knocked out in the first round against Punahele Soriano. Gregory Rodrigues (9-3-0) is set to make his UFC debut on Saturday and he enters the promotion with an 8-1 record over his last nine games with each of his last three wins coming by knockout. Todorovic is the better prospect here, but in what should be an exciting fight between two men swinging for knockouts, we’ll take Rodrigues to make the most of his UFC opportunity with an upset win.

Middleweight: Tom Breese (-240) vs Antonio Arroyo (+205)

Tom Breese (12-3-0) has hit a bit of a rough patch with a 2-3 record over his last five fights since starting his professional career with a 10-0 record including a 3-0 start in the UFC. Antonio Arroyo (9-4-0) entered the UFC with a 9-2 record but has lost each of his first two fights with the promotion. Arroyo hasn’t shown that he can compete at this level yet and is a great matchup for Breese to get back in the win column with.