Serie A 2021/22 Matchweek 28 betting picks & best value bets

Two of the top three teams on the Serie A table meet this weekend when Napoli hosts AC Milan. We’ll take a closer look at that matchup and also make picks in the AS Roma vs Atalanta and Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona matches in our Serie A Matchweek 28 best bets.

AS Roma vs Atalanta

Atalanta (13-8-5) won for just the second time since December 12 on Monday in a 4-0 victory at home over Sampdoria. The club opened the 2021-22 season with an 11-4-2 record that included a 8-2-0 run from October through early December, but that hot streak gave way to a 1-4-3 slump. AS Roma (13-5-9) broke a stretch of three straight draws with a 1-0 road win over Spezia on Sunday.

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Strangely enough, Atalanta has actually been far better on the road this season with a 9-3-1 record and a +14 goal differential than it has at home with a 4-5-4 record and a +6 goal differential. With that in mind, Atalanta looks enticing as a road underdog in this matchup. Neither of these teams has been in particularly good form of late, so this seems to be as good of a spot as any to take a shot on a good road team that has played better overall this season than its opponent has.

Fiorentina vs Hellas Verona

Fiorentina (13-3-10) fell to 3-3-3 over its last nine matches with a 2-1 loss on the road to Sassuolo last Saturday. Hellas Verona (11-7-9) meanwhile improved to 4-1-1 over its last six games with a 3-1 win at home against Venezia. All four of those wins over that stretch came against teams on the bottom half of the table; Verona lost to Juventus 2-0 on the road and played to a 2-2 draw against AS Roma.

These two clubs played to a 1-1 draw when they last met in December. Verona’s offense has heated up a lot since then, averaging 2.5 goals per game over the club’s last six games. Fiorentina on the other hand has scored one goal or less in each of its last five games. Another 1-1 draw wouldn’t be too surprising, but we think that Hellas Verona’s strong recent play on offense makes this another good spot to bet on the road team as a big underdog on this Serie A betting card.

Napoli vs AC Milan

Napoli (17-6-4) extended its current unbeaten streak to eight games with a 2-1 road win over Lazio on Sunday, improving to 5-3-0 since its last loss back on December 22. The club went through a 2-1-4 slump that stretched through November and December, but that run seems to be an anomaly given the 10-2-0 record that came before it and the unbeaten streak after it. AC Milan (17-6-4) could easily be in first place on the Serie A table right now if not for two disappointing back-to-back draws against Salernitana and Udinese.

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The razor-thin margin separating Napoli, Milan and Inter atop the Serie A table is setting the stage for a thrilling race for the top spot in the coming months. Napoli is playing the best soccer out of those three clubs at the moment, and while Milan is somewhat tempting here as a +260 road underdog, we think Napoli gets the job done at home in this prime-time matchup on Sunday.