Serie A 2021/22 Matchweek 30 best bets & value picks

The three clubs chasing AC Milan for the top spot on the Serie A table are all big favorites at home this weekend as Napoli hosts Udinese, Inter Milan faces Fiorentina and Juventus takes on Salernitana. We’ve got picks in all three of these matchups in our best bets for Serie A Matchweek 30.

Napoli vs Udinese

Napoli (18-6-5) bounced back from a 1-0 loss at home to AC Milan with a 2-1 win on the road over Hellas Verona on Sunday. The club is now 6-3-1 over its last 10 matches since suffering through a 2-1-4 slump back in November and December. Napoli’s defense has allowed exactly one goal in each of the club’s last five games.

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Udinese (6-12-9) played to a 1-1 draw against AS Roma on Sunday, it’s third 1-1 draw over the team’s last four games. Those other two draws came against top-five teams in AC Milan and Lazio. The UNDER 2.5 goals is worth some consideration here, but we’re going to make our play on Udinese +1. Napoli hasn’t beaten a team by two or more goals since February 6, and Udinese has been playing some rock-solid defense over its current four-game unbeaten streak of 1-3-0. A draw or a one-goal win for Napoli feel like the most likely outcomes, so a play on the spread should be profitable in the long run here.

Inter Milan vs Fiorentina

Inter Milan (17-8-3) looked to be well on its way to a Serie A Championship with a 15-4-1 record and dominant play on both sides of the pitch through its first 20 games. But that stretch of dominance has given way to an underwhelming 2-4-2 run, with Internazionale most recently settling for a 1-1 draw against Torino on Sunday. A 5-0 win over dead-last Salernitana is the only bright spot on Inter’s current 1-3-2 skid.

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With all of this in mind, Fiorentina (14-4-10) looks like a pretty solid play this Saturday as a 1.25-goal underdog. Fiorentina defeated Bologna 1-0 on Sunday and has been playing pretty well in recent months with a 7-4-3 record over its last 14 matches. This is the type of game that Inter Milan would win easily at home in top form, but in their current form, a draw or a one-goal win seem far more likely than a 2+ goal blowout.

Juventus vs Salernitana

Juventus (16-8-5) opened the season with a disastrous 0-2-2 start and was just 6-3-5 through Matchweek 14. The club hasn’t lost since then however, reeling off a 10-5-0 run that has helped them claw to within seven points of league-leading AC Milan’s 63 points. The offense has been clicking during Juventus’s current three-game winning streak as the club has outscored its opponents 7-3 over that stretch.

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Salernitana (3-7-17) is Serie A’s worst team by a comfortable margin. They have the worst record on the table, are tied for dead-last in goals scored with 22, and sit alone in last place in goals against with 63 conceded. Salernitana does deserve credit for its improved play of late, scratching out five draws over their last seven games. But their two games on the road against top-five clubs, a 4-1 loss to Napoli and a 5-0 loss to Inter Milan, should be good indicators of what to expect on Saturday.

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